Vernon Philander-Should he still be in the test team?

[TheJammyTurtle]

Thing is,I've had this thought for a while now,even before his choke today in the champions league.If you look at his figures in his last 4 or 5 matches they are atrocious and it seems he is living off his first year in test cricket.I may be too harsh here as those matches were on sub continent pitches,but there's no doubting the guy has declined in performance.
Thoughts?

 

[morgieb]

Still averages a fair bit less than Steyn at Test level. Has an awful lot of credit in the bank so would need to continue his inadequate performances for the next 12 months or something.

 

[Cabinet96]

Yes. /thread.

 

[Bahnz]

He absolutely should still be in the team, but there's no doubt that there's been a pretty significant slide in his outputs in the last year. I wonder if it's mainly due to spending a lot of that time bowling in very good batting conditions. He doesn't swing the ball that much, and his pace is barely above medium, so maybe he's disproportionately affected by docile batting conditions with low bounce and no movement. Either way, I suspect he'll be back to filling his boots during the upcoming home series v WI.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Has had a pretty bad patch, but as morgieb says, he has plenty of credit in the bank.

 

[Maximas]

Philander is pretty mediocre when he's not getting much from the surface as we saw in SL for example, but his output in the UAE and as a batsman (not to mention how he goes in helpful conditions) are absolutely enough to keep his spot very safe

 

[ohnoitsyou]

Given south africas pace bowling reserves, all three quicks have to be given very short leashes.

 

[Maximas]

You give leeway to guys who are pretty much world class though

 

[flibbertyjibber]

No comment.

Once bitten twice shy.

 

[TheJammyTurtle]

Thanks for the feedback,general opinion is that he should still be in it.What if I told you he averaged over 53 in his last 5 tests including one where he had 5/105?Also he was number 1 bowler at the start of the year,and he's dropped to number 6 now?That represents a pretty steep decline.Maybe I'm being too harsh but I feel that the upcoming series v the West Indies should be near enough to last chance saloon for him.

 

[Adders]

Thanks for the feedback,general opinion is that he should still be in it.What if I told you he averaged over 53 in his last 5 tests including one where he had 5/105?Also he was number 1 bowler at the start of the year,and he's dropped to number 6 now?That represents a pretty steep decline.Maybe I'm being too harsh but I feel that the upcoming series v the West Indies should be near enough to last chance saloon for him.

The folk here are pretty knowledgeable so I think you'll find most are well aware of his returns for 2014.

The fact is you don't drop a bowler averaging low 20's with 9 5fers to his name in 26 tests after a run of 6 poor tests.............as others have said Vernon has some serious credit in the bank for now.

I always thought his ridiculously good stats have flattered him somewhat and I think we'll see him settle into a bowler with a career average of mid to high 20's..........good enough to walk into any side in the world especially when you consider what he brings to the table with the bat.

I wouldn't think he is anywhere near close to being canned by SA.

 

[hendrix]

He actually bowled pretty well against Pakistan in the UAE. He's no green-track bully, anyway.

No he's not as good as his stats suggest. No surprise there. He's still a good bowler though.

 

[Red]

Thanks for the feedback,general opinion is that he should still be in it.What if I told you he averaged over 53 in his last 5 tests including one where he had 5/105?Also he was number 1 bowler at the start of the year,and he's dropped to number 6 now?That represents a pretty steep decline.Maybe I'm being too harsh but I feel that the upcoming series v the West Indies should be near enough to last chance saloon for him.

Only two tests ago he took five wickets (4 top order bats) in a winning test v Australia. I don't think he'll be dropped in a hurry.

2nd Test: South Africa v Australia at Port Elizabeth, Feb 20-23, 2014 | Cricket Scorecard | ESPN Cricinfo

I agree with what Adders said. I think we'll see his average (and prob SR) slowly slide until it levels out around 25-28.

 

[kingkallis]

He is doing a pretty handy job with the bat so I guess he wont be dropped for at least 3-4 series. As people @ CW predicted earlier, he would end up with the average of 27-28 and SR of 50ish.

 

[social]

I agree with those who say that an appropriate bowling average for him is late 20s - excellent bowler in conditions that suit, somewhat pedestrian otherwise

Haven't bothered to do the calcs but I suspect that if he were to end up with this average at the end of his career, he would need to average 35-40 from now on and I cant see SA putting up with that

 

[Valer]

I agree with those who say that an appropriate bowling average for him is late 20s - excellent bowler in conditions that suit, somewhat pedestrian otherwise

Haven't bothered to do the calcs but I suspect that if he were to end up with this average at the end of his career, he would need to average 35-40 from now on and I cant see SA putting up with that

W Av1 Runs Req Avg
200 30 6000 41.4
250 30 7500 37.2
300 30 9000 35.2
350 30 10500 34.1
400 30 12000 33.4

200 25 5000 29.6
250 25 6250 27.9
300 25 7500 27.1
350 25 8750 26.7
400 25 10000 26.4

200 27.5 5500 35.5
250 27.5 6875 32.5
300 27.5 8250 31.2
350 27.5 9625 30.4
400 27.5 11000 29.9


I doubt he'll hit 30 looking at that but Monk's suggestion seems reasonable given how long Morkel has been in the team.

 

[vic_orthdox]

I agree with those who say that an appropriate bowling average for him is late 20s - excellent bowler in conditions that suit, somewhat pedestrian otherwise

Haven't bothered to do the calcs but I suspect that if he were to end up with this average at the end of his career, he would need to average 35-40 from now on and I cant see SA putting up with that

Yup, he's going to end up with a better record than people here talk about. A bit like Stuart Clark really, but will have more career wickets due to a much better peak.