This is probably the first World Cup where I genuinely believe any of the Top 8 could win it.
I think Australia's 'clear favourites' tag is undeserved; the bowling attack has the tendency to leak 300+ at random and the batting is very top-heavy. If Ryan Harris plays, they look far stronger. If we're playing a McKay/NCN/Richardson/Cutting/Pattinson every game, I think much of the home advantage gets lost.
South Africa has the strongest side IMO, with Amla/ABdV/Steyn an incredible core. De Kock has come along well, while the seam bowling side of things is fantastic for them. Duminy and Tahir could struggle though, and all this is tempered by the c-word.
India's batting is very strong when in-form, and on Australian decks they may be able to score enough runs to offset their bowling weakness come the big games. But can they win 3 straight?
SL is much the same IMO, only I feel they're somewhat more likely to win 3 straight because their bowling is slightly stronger -- Malinga, Kula's Brisbane spell, and a h4x Herath.
Pakistan could do it, but without Ajmal I don't think they will. Junaid and Irfan should be decent over here, the batting has enough to it if they get it right, but they'd need stars to align to genuinely challenge.
England could also win it, but aren't likely IMO. Middle of the road team who could score upsets all through the tournament to win, but are more likely to drop out in the quarters. All you need is some Buttler h4x, though.
West Indies are definitely in with a chance. They're coming into their own as a unit, in Narine they have a spinner who can keep things tight (though he may be nullified as a wickettaking threat by Australian pitches). Roach and Taylor could devastate, but the batting looks weak with Chanderpaul not playing -- he holds them together in Tests.
New Zealand are in with a serious chance IMO. Second-best seam attack behind SA, a good middle order with Williamson and (hopefully) Watling playing. And if Vettori is fit for a World Cup swansong, their biggest weakness can be papered over. I can honestly see them winning the thing; if they drop pick Watling, they'll have the perfect balance of cake and icing.
I think Australia's 'clear favourites' tag is undeserved; the bowling attack has the tendency to leak 300+ at random and the batting is very top-heavy. If Ryan Harris plays, they look far stronger. If we're playing a McKay/NCN/Richardson/Cutting/Pattinson every game, I think much of the home advantage gets lost.
South Africa has the strongest side IMO, with Amla/ABdV/Steyn an incredible core. De Kock has come along well, while the seam bowling side of things is fantastic for them. Duminy and Tahir could struggle though, and all this is tempered by the c-word.
India's batting is very strong when in-form, and on Australian decks they may be able to score enough runs to offset their bowling weakness come the big games. But can they win 3 straight?
SL is much the same IMO, only I feel they're somewhat more likely to win 3 straight because their bowling is slightly stronger -- Malinga, Kula's Brisbane spell, and a h4x Herath.
Pakistan could do it, but without Ajmal I don't think they will. Junaid and Irfan should be decent over here, the batting has enough to it if they get it right, but they'd need stars to align to genuinely challenge.
England could also win it, but aren't likely IMO. Middle of the road team who could score upsets all through the tournament to win, but are more likely to drop out in the quarters. All you need is some Buttler h4x, though.
West Indies are definitely in with a chance. They're coming into their own as a unit, in Narine they have a spinner who can keep things tight (though he may be nullified as a wickettaking threat by Australian pitches). Roach and Taylor could devastate, but the batting looks weak with Chanderpaul not playing -- he holds them together in Tests.
New Zealand are in with a serious chance IMO. Second-best seam attack behind SA, a good middle order with Williamson and (hopefully) Watling playing. And if Vettori is fit for a World Cup swansong, their biggest weakness can be papered over. I can honestly see them winning the thing; if they drop pick Watling, they'll have the perfect balance of cake and icing.
