*Official* English Football Season 2014-15

[Tom Halsey]

I don't really see any way Suarez turns down Real Madrid, whatever attachment he feels to Liverpool. They're the biggest name in world football by miles among Latin people. Look at Ronaldo. He still speaks with great affection about us and his time here, and we were widely seen as the best side in Europe when he wanted to go, but he wouldn't turn down Real Madrid. I just don't see any way Suarez feels enough loyalty to Liverpool to choose to stay at a side that, for all the progress they undoubtedly made last season still didn't win anything, haven't won a title in 24 years, are fourth favourites for next season's title and are far from guaranteed to win a title any time soon, in favour of moving to the biggest club in world football, who on top of that are currently champions of Europe. I could (sort of) see him turning down Barcelona but not Real Madrid. If they genuinely are in for him (it seems like they are, and he is their sort of signing) then the only way I can see him not going is if some sort of deal is done for him to go next summer, as there was with Ronaldo.

I'd be astounded if there is no release clause in Suarez's contract given when he signed it they weren't guaranteed in most people's eyes to even finish in the top four and we all know Real Madrid would have no qualms about meeting it if needs be.

 

[Ikki]

Apart from City and Chelsea, who are the 3rd team ahead of Liverpool as favourites? They're better placed than Arsenal, United or Tottenham at the moment to challenge. I'd rank it like this: Chelsea>City>Liverpool>Arsenal>United>Tottenham.

We'll see. We hear enough of these kinds of news and assurances made either way to know that the opposite can happen. But as I say, from the noises coming from Suarez or the club, it isn't going to happen this season. You get the feeling they want a proper go at the title next year and we'd be willing to cash out right before he hits his 30s. It'll happen you'd think eventually, though.

 

[Tom Halsey]

Apart from City and Chelsea, who are the 3rd team ahead of Liverpool as favourites? They're better placed than Arsenal, United or Tottenham at the moment to challenge. I'd rank it like this: Chelsea>City>Liverpool>Arsenal>United>Tottenham.

United are 3rd favourites. United best price 6/1, Liverpool best price 7/1. Chelsea favourites and City 2nd favourites fwiw.

 

[Ikki]

United are 3rd favourites. United best price 6/1, Liverpool best price 7/1. Chelsea favourites and City 2nd favourites fwiw.

United are not 3rd favourites. I've also seen some betting sites with both United and Liverpool at 6/1. It's laughable, they're not even 4th favourites really (I'd say Arsenal are and depending who they get could make that gap even bigger). I'm fairly sure Suarez isn't looking at United as an equal challenger in any case, even if the bookies are.

The reality is that no team that has come 7th the season before is likely going to challenge for the title. Apart from Liverpool last year, it's basically never happened. It's usually the team that has come 1st or 2nd, or at a stretch 3rd, the previous year.

United will do well to be able to gather themselves and get 4th, they're not winning the title next year.

 

[Tom Halsey]

Possibly in Oz, I don't know. I used oddschecker and that is what it tells me. Premier League Winner 2014/15 Betting Odds | Oddschecker

I think those odds are fine tbh, although it is hard to predict with certainty how United will go, they are the highest variance side this year. I think though we've already made the best signing anyone will make this summer. LVG > Moyes by so much that he will improve our results more than any player would do.

It's the same squad that won the title 14 months ago.

EDIT: Although I have just noticed that using oddschecker best price, City are favourites haha. I normally use Betfair and just assumed Chelsea would be favourites with the bookies as well seeing as they are favourites on Betfair. Also seen that there are some bookies where Liverpool are shorter than United on here, but not many.

 

[Cabinet96]

Yeah, but as we've established in the last five seasons, you can't win a title with Thomas Vermaelen at the heart of your defence.

 

[Tom Halsey]

Yeah it isn't strictly the same side now tbf, but Vidic, Rio, Giggs and Scholes hardly played big roles in the 2012/13 season. It was basically the same side last year though compared to the title winning side, which came 7th the year after winning it. Shows how big an impact the manager has on these things.

 

[Uppercut]

Apart from City and Chelsea, who are the 3rd team ahead of Liverpool as favourites? They're better placed than Arsenal, United or Tottenham at the moment to challenge. I'd rank it like this: Chelsea>City>Liverpool>Arsenal>United>Tottenham.

We'll see. We hear enough of these kinds of news and assurances made either way to know that the opposite can happen. But as I say, from the noises coming from Suarez or the club, it isn't going to happen this season. You get the feeling they want a proper go at the title next year and we'd be willing to cash out right before he hits his 30s. It'll happen you'd think eventually, though.

I would be amazed if you've managed to pull off the spoof-release-clause prank on him a second time. I think ultimately you'll have to let him go if both he and Madrid want the deal done.

 

[Ikki]

The wildcard is LVG, but it's too much of a step for a new manager to come into a new club (and league) that's had such a terrible season and that is having such a big turnover in players. It's simply not realistic and if anything the bookies are betting on the 'name' of United. Unless they go ham and spend like 200m on quality players (and even then, it's doubtful because players take time to assimilate) it's delusional to think so IMO. Trust me, I know after 2008-09/2009-2010

I would be amazed if you've managed to pull off the spoof-release-clause prank on him a second time. I think ultimately you'll have to let him go if both he and Madrid want the deal done.

If he signed a contract for the reason of having a release clause last season, then it's going to be astronomical I'd bet, as the owners didn't need to extend his contract at that time. And meeting that is the only way it's going to happen this season I reckon. As said, these days you don't know, but generally you can gauge the likelihood of these kinds of things in club talks amongst fans and from admin/player interviews. It doesn't really register on the richter scale at the moment. We also have the kind of owner who if he doesn't want it to happen; it won't happen. For some reason, it just makes sense that he'd go next season. For Real to break the transfer record 2 seasons running is a bit much in that current Spanish economy too.

 

[Tom Halsey]

There isn't a big turnover of players though, that is the point. From the title winning side we have lost two old players to retirement, and two defenders who even two years ago were a long way past their best. Smalling, Jones and Evans, who will all be here next season, all played reasonable amounts that season also so it's not like they need settling in time. Evans played more than Vidic in fact.

United are just hard to predict I think. It's one of those occasions where I think United are correctly a shorter price than Liverpool to win the title, but if we were to have a straight bet on who will finish higher out of United and Liverpool then Liverpool should probably be slight favourites. United could conceivably come anywhere from 1st-7th IMO, although either extreme would certainly be surprising.

 

[Ikki]

United are just hard to predict I think. It's one of those occasions where I think United are correctly a shorter price than Liverpool to win the title, but if we were to have a straight bet on who will finish higher out of United and Liverpool then Liverpool should probably be slight favourites. United could conceivably come anywhere from 1st-7th IMO, although either extreme would certainly be surprising.

I hate to tempt fate but there's no way in hell you're coming 1st and it's more likely you'd come 7th than 1st. At least far more likely that you'd be closer to 7th than 1st. If United get 4th, LVG has done great IMO. I'd also say the opposite is true in that I think it's more likely that United could finish above Liverpool (season past being an outlier) than winning the title from 7th to 1st. In the premier league era, that's just not happening. I was saying last season that if Liverpool had done it, it would be the greatest win in EPL history. I'd say the same if United managed it.

As for the players you mentioned; well if they're going to be starting in the first XI I think you're having problems anyway. In a way, you need to have a high turnover of players. 3-4 in a new first XI is quite a bit of a change and I can see you'd probably need a new CB pairing, a new central midfielder and probably a new winger/attacking midfielder.

 

[Tom Halsey]

Again though, the players I mentioned all played a reasonable amount of time in the title winning season. They seemed to be good enough the last time they had a competent manager. Admittedly we won the title that season based on scoring one more than the opposition scored, but then on that front all the attacking players from that season are still here also, and the defence still conceded less goals than Liverpool did last season, for instance.

People underrate United's squad now. They were managed by David Moyes, of course they didn't look great last season. Going back and reading the opening pages of the 13/14 thread on here makes amusing reading now. but it provides a more accurate reflection of our squad IMO because there was no Moyes season to distort the picture. Basically everyone was saying our squad was good.

It's drifting from the original point I was making that Liverpool are very unlikely to win the league anyway. I don't disagree at all that United are also unlikely to win the league and 6/1 obviously shows that. But Liverpool are less likely and I don't think anyone in their right mind would turn down Real Madrid to stay there.

 

[Uppercut]

For Real to break the transfer record 2 seasons running is a bit much in that current Spanish economy too.

You can almost hear the sound of straws being clutched.

 

[Uppercut]

Again though, the players I mentioned all played a reasonable amount of time in the title winning season. They seemed to be good enough the last time they had a competent manager. Admittedly we won the title that season based on scoring one more than the opposition scored, but then on that front all the attacking players from that season are still here also, and the defence still conceded less goals than Liverpool did last season, for instance.

People underrate United's squad now. They were managed by David Moyes, of course they didn't look great last season. Going back and reading the opening pages of the 13/14 thread on here makes amusing reading now. but it provides a more accurate reflection of our squad IMO because there was no Moyes season to distort the picture. Basically everyone was saying our squad was good.

It's drifting from the original point I was making that Liverpool are very unlikely to win the league anyway. I don't disagree at all that United are also unlikely to win the league and 6/1 obviously shows that. But Liverpool are less likely and I don't think anyone in their right mind would turn down Real Madrid to stay there.

But more importantly, United failing to win the title 2 seasons in a row is highly unlikely given the current strength of the Manchester economy.

 

[Nate]

Quality stooping there, urgh.

Think it's likely Suarez will stay on for one more season myself, but regardless, we better get Bale-money when he does leave, haha.

 

[GIMH]

Yeah can't see them putting a £67m clause, you'd have thought they wanted higher.

 

[Ikki]

It's drifting from the original point I was making that Liverpool are very unlikely to win the league anyway. I don't disagree at all that United are also unlikely to win the league and 6/1 obviously shows that. But Liverpool are less likely and I don't think anyone in their right mind would turn down Real Madrid to stay there.

United more chance than Liverpool? Nonsense. Anything is possible in football, but it's not about just a competent manager taking over. It's a manager that's never managed in England, taking over a team that's just come 7th, who'll be bedding in new players and bringing about his style of football. For that to click in one year is next to never happening. Liverpool at least just came 2nd and were in the title race until the last game. Who're in the CL, can attract better players, and have more money to do so. If United win the league next year it'll be quite a shock, if Liverpool does it it is more or less a logical progression for how they've improved.

What you're saying about United is also something Liverpool fans went through, we still thought the team was capable of coming top 4 at least after the title challenge in 08/09 as it was still mostly the same players that challenged that year and who got the #1 ranking in Europe. But when the bottom falls out it's hard to put it together again. That resilient mentality that a team builds is eroded, irrespective of the quality. And frankly, while I've tended to think Jones, Evans and Smalling are better than they're portrayed in the media; they're not starters in a title winning side (one of them with a top class CB, sure). Again, anything is possible; LVG can be a magician, he's done it before, and he's not dealing with League One players by any stretch; but if you're putting money on it for all these things to come together is just farfetched. I can see United even leading the league by January but no matter the permutation they'll probably be fighting for CL spots more than anything by the end.

As for Real; it's not about Suarez choosing Liverpool over them. For Latin players that club is seen as the pinnacle. But the impression gotten so far is that it's unlikely to happen this season. I think the biggest giveaway about the recent transfer news is that they're citing 67m...last year we wouldn't have taken 50, after the season Suarez has had I don't think they signed a new contract for just 17m if that was the reason to put a clause in. It'll likely be the transfer record or near it. Other than that, it doesn't make sense.

Having said all that I've probably put the whammy in terms of jinx on Liverpool - getting relegated and United winning the title

 

[Ikki]

Quality stooping there, urgh.

Think it's likely Suarez will stay on for one more season myself, but regardless, we better get Bale-money when he does leave, haha.

A lot of it is United fans projecting haha, they're hoping he leaves. But to be honest I think we'll do fine without him, we have done last year and having Sturridge makes the blow softer. Which is not to say that Suarez isn't important; he is fantastically so and brings us to the next level but I think we can plan around his departure with the money he brings and the real key to this team is Rodgers, more than anyone.

 

[Tom Halsey]

United more chance than Liverpool? Nonsense. Anything is possible in football, but it's not about just a competent manager taking over. It's a manager that's never managed in England, taking over a team that's just come 7th, who'll be bedding in new players and bringing about his style of football. For that to click in one year is next to never happening. Liverpool at least just came 2nd and were in the title race until the last game. Who're in the CL, can attract better players, and have more money to do so. If United win the league next year it'll be quite a shock, if Liverpool does it it is more or less a logical progression for how they've improved.

What you're saying about United is also something Liverpool fans went through, we still thought the team was capable of coming top 4 at least after the title challenge in 08/09 as it was still mostly the same players that challenged that year and who got the #1 ranking in Europe. But when the bottom falls out it's hard to put it together again. That resilient mentality that a team builds is eroded, irrespective of the quality. And frankly, while I've tended to think Jones, Evans and Smalling are better than they're portrayed in the media; they're not starters in a title winning side (one of them with a top class CB, sure). Again, anything is possible; LVG can be a magician, he's done it before, and he's not dealing with League One players by any stretch; but if you're putting money on it for all these things to come together is just farfetched. I can see United even leading the league by January but no matter the permutation they'll probably be fighting for CL spots more than anything by the end.

I don't know how I got into this tbh. I just made a statement of fact - Liverpool are fourth favourites for the title. Disagree with the bookies if you like, but there it is.

If Liverpool actually were any more than a 1 in 8 chance to win the league, fwiw, a load of sharps would currently be piling on them and forcing the price below 7/1, but I don't see it happening.

Regarding the Suarez talk simply being a load of United fans hoping he leaves, firstly I doubt any of us are that bothered really, and secondly it seems slightly rich after the point about the Spanish economy which has yet to have any correlation with Real Madrid's spending.

 

[The Sean]

Reports everywhere this morning that United are on the verge (again) of signing Herrera from Bilbao. An interesting development after the megalolz of deadline day last year.

Apparently he's something called a "central midfielder" which I'm assuming is a newly invented thing.