I agree with you that New Zealand are the better side as it stands. However, I think you might well be as guilty as you say WW is in over-rating your side, the difference isn't that huge. Lets analyse the sides:
- Both of our teams have poor opening partnerships but at least we have one Test class opening batsman averaging over 40. Advantage us.
- Up until your last home summer our middle order was in a different league from yours. The NZ middle order have picked up form and are batting well at the moment but I'd still prefer Edwards, Bravo, Shiv and Samuels to Kane, Taylor, Mcullum, Neesham. I'd say current advantage to New Zealand based on form and confidence but in terms of pedigree that could change at any moment, especially in these conditions.
- The keeper batsman, as discussed before yesterday, average exactly the same as each other over the last 2 years so take your pick. Even as far as I'm concerned, and it's backed up by stats.
- We have the better spin options, even without Narine. Advantage us.
- You have the better seam options. Advantage You.
Due to current form, I fear New Zealand will win but if one or two of our big bats hit form, which is entirely possible, the balance between the two teams will completely change because there is not much in it. Right, now I've said that, I am going to avoid this jingoistic flag waving that some of you are indulging in and concentrate on the cricket as it happens.
Beamer - I agree with most of your points. Ask any NZ Fan on this forum my sentiments about Sodhi and Craig and you'll see that I think we're actually playing you with eight international cricketers and three vacationers ( Fulton, Sodhi, Craig ) I actually think with Shillingford messing up his action and not allowed to bowl his Doosra that Kane Williamson could potentially be the best spinner on display on either side at the moment in the absence of Narine.
You'll also note that I don't only consider Chanderpaul a current great, but I see him as someone who should potentially be knocking on the door as an all time great for the Windies and someone who could potentially disrupt some of the immortals for a place in the side. I think as highly as most rate Chanderpaul, he's severely underrated for what he's managed to do for almost twenty years despite some circumstances where he had little to no support. Gayle is a powerhouse brute who hasn't performed to potential in test cricket in the last few years and I'd enjoy it if he came alive in this series, but I don't think he will and Bravo seems to be the type of guy that will play two great innings and four bad innings for every six times he bats.
Keeper Batsman wise, I'm bias here. I know of Watling's potential as a batsman and how great his technique is. I'm not taking anything away from Ramdin but I'd take Watling in my side over any keeper batsman not named De Villers, Haddin or Sangakarra in world cricket at the moment.
Seam bowling wise, I rated Holder as more likely than what I've seen out of Roach and Taylor was impressive early but I fear he's not going to create massive inroads into a side. Where as we know that Southee and Boult both possess the potential (in almost any condition if the ball moves) to rip sides apart.
Spin wise, as facetious as it sounds, Williamson is probably as good as Benn as a spin bowler. I'll say that Shillingford is ahead of him but I really don't know how Shillingford will go with a major weapon neutralized and the fact that he now has a different action. You could find that Williamson is actually the best spinner on display in either side, as scary as that is, considering we've selected two spinners in the side. I'd feel more comfortable if we had Wagner as I think he'd break through even if conditions don't suit him against some of your better players.
Let's put it another way.
If Chanderpaul, Gayle and Bravo have great series - the Windies will probably draw due to the weakness of their bowling attack. If they don't have great series, the Windies will probably lose due to the weakness of their bowling attack and other players.