***Official*** Australia in South Africa 2013/14

[Cabinet96]

Last time Kallis was injured, he was replaced by a bowler. I expect (and hope) the same this time around.

So weird how some teams just don't know how to live without a genuine 5th bowler. Absolutely no need to bring a bowler in when Duminy is considered one of the best six batsman in the country.

 

[BeeGee]

I can't wait to watch Johnson vs Elgar. Elgar struggled hilariously on debut with dire Mitch, hows he going to go against the current version.

Here's my question: is this current version of Johnson the definitive production version, or just the home ashes, one off, never to be repeated, special limited edition version?

 

[Red]

If I were Australia, I'd be inclined to keep the same XI for the first test. I know Bailey didn't go great against England, but I think there's a lot to be said for the current dressing room morale etc being kept as is.

If Bailey is dropped I'd prefer they play a younger batsman like Maddinson or Doolan (who will be around for a few years).

 

[Red]

Here's my question: is this current version of Johnson the definitive production version, or just the home ashes, one off, never to be repeated, special limited edition version?

As always, he'll do well in home conditions. And he'll go well in SA.

 

[Top_Cat]

Never know of course but was bowling just as well in the English ODIs before the Ashes. That was what got him the gig, Haddin coming home and telling everyone to pick him ASAP.

And, honestly, the signs were there even as far back as last year's Perth Test against the Saffers. In the midst of a miserable Perth Test where Amla and AB Downhill bashed the bowling, he took 6 for the game. Distinctly remember he was bowling some hostile stuff and just in general looked enthusiastic and up for the contest, even bagged some catches. Probably the only bowler who was consistently threatening that game, looked fit and nasty. Just needed some support.

 

[hendrix]

Never know of course but was bowling just as well in the English ODIs before the Ashes. That was what got him the gig, Haddin coming home and telling everyone to pick him ASAP.

And, honestly, the signs were there even as far back as last year's Perth Test against the Saffers. In the midst of a miserable Perth Test where Amla and AB Downhill bashed the bowling, he took 6 for the game. Distinctly remember he was bowling some hostile stuff and just in general looked enthusiastic and up for the contest, even bagged some catches. Probably the only bowler who was consistently threatening that game, looked fit and nasty. Just needed some support.

Yeah that was an interesting one. What was the name of that Aussie debutant who got smacked about?

And wasn't Starc also playing too, bowling as wayward as usual?

Harris and Siddle are a huge difference.

 

[Top_Cat]

Johnny Pastings.

 

[hendrix]

That's right. He was dreadful.

 

[Red]

Harris and Siddle are a huge difference.

Very true.

 

[morgieb]

Never know of course but was bowling just as well in the English ODIs before the Ashes. That was what got him the gig, Haddin coming home and telling everyone to pick him ASAP.

And, honestly, the signs were there even as far back as last year's Perth Test against the Saffers. In the midst of a miserable Perth Test where Amla and AB Downhill bashed the bowling, he took 6 for the game. Distinctly remember he was bowling some hostile stuff and just in general looked enthusiastic and up for the contest, even bagged some catches. Probably the only bowler who was consistently threatening that game, looked fit and nasty. Just needed some support.

He was also pretty good against Sri Lanka IIRC, but they were as bad as England were this summer.

Plus his record against South Africa is pretty damn strong.

 

[Tangles]

If I were Australia, I'd be inclined to keep the same XI for the first test. I know Bailey didn't go great against England, but I think there's a lot to be said for the current dressing room morale etc being kept as is.

If Bailey is dropped I'd prefer they play a younger batsman like Maddinson or Doolan (who will be around for a few years).

Bailey out for a batsman. No Shield before the tour but hopefully the selectors use something other than BB for selection.

 

[Blocky]

I'd be highly surprised if the following events do not happen.

1. Clarke shows that he had a great purple patch for a couple of years, but that he is not the player Australian's think he is and he'll go back to being an inconsistent guy who averages around 40 for the rest of his career.
2. Watson, Warner and Smith will have very limited success in South Africa.
3. Nathan Lyon will not benefit from bad shot making and once again struggle to take wickets consistently
4. Ryan Harris will not make it through the series
5. Steyn will out bowl Johnson, Harris and Siddle.

Why?

Clarke has a history of being very excellent in periods and then wilting away. While he is very good against spin bowling, top quality pace bowling has always unsettled him and I think the form he did have has faded, along with his fitness from his back issues.

The amount of damage accrued on Harris in the series was unreal that he was able to get through, however he was helped by the fact that very rarely were Australia asked to spend 120-150 overs in the field during an innings. Had England batted the typical 200-250 overs per test, Harris would not have made it through

Smith benefitted from some shoddy fielding and was either hit or bust, he will struggle against the bowling attack South Africa has. Warner is always hit or miss and against South Africa with Philander and Steyn opening, you'd imagine they'll get him early more often than not, leaving Watson to have to deal with experts at finding probing lengths that attract false shots either for LBWor edges.

Lyon is not, and will never be a good spin bowler. He's benefitted from this generally because the other team goes after him at breakneck speed and gifts him wickets, against De Villers, Du Plessis and Amla - all very good against spin, he will be ****kicked all over South African wickets, to the point that he may not even be in the Ashes squad in 2015.

Steyn has recharged himself, found more control, got some of his pace back and added some new variations since Donald started working with him. He'll also want to absolutely dominate and destroy the Australian tail end like they did to England as a matter of pride and point.

I'm expecting South Africa to win this easily.

 

[Flem274*]

Clarke 151 against SA last time round bro.

 

[hendrix]

Think that's all a bit much, tbh.

Clarke's already scored a lone century against Steyn and co, IIRC. I do generally think he's a touch overrated, but he's still an excellent batsman that can score match winning tons.

Warner, too, has scored outstanding tons in difficult conditions. This is the batsman I'd be most worried about were I a South African.

Watson, yeah, he may struggle with the bat. Smith might too.

Lyon is fine. He's not great, but he's better than Robbie P. He shouldn't be getting a massive number of overs anyway.

Harris is just an excellent bowler. Not much else to say. His record speaks for itself.

 

[Blocky]

@Flem

Key word, "Last Time" - The last couple of seasons, the amazing run of form he had has been dropping away, which coincided with what two events? 1. His back issues starting to flare up massively and 2. No longer having Ponting or Hussey in the side to soak up some of the pressure he now faces as being the best batsman in the squad. He's generally walking out there now thinking "Well, I can trust Haddin to do a job for me... but Steve Smith? George Bailey?" and in this series, he's generally done it when Australia are two down for not many.

His achievements against South Africa are great, he averages something like 70 against them from memory? But how many of those runs came at #4 without a consistent pair of opening batsmen, a world class #3, #4 and #6 being in the team beside him?

@Hendrix

Look at this series, how many did Warner score when the game was live? He made hardly any first innings runs and had the benefit of coming in to a second innings almost always with England completely out of the match. He's a great talent for see ball, hit ball but he doesn't have a Hayden like ability to do it consistently under pressure in all conditions.

Harris is the best bowler Australia have produced since Glen McGrath and possibly even as good if not better than McGrath, problem is he's amazingly injury prone and has been helped through this series by the fact that he's not been asked to find 25-30 overs across 2 days very often. Reports indicate that he has knee fluid leaking into his calf muscle causing major problems, that his hip on the opposing leg is starting to buckle and that he was touch and go for pretty much every match, assisted by the fact that Australia batted first in all three starting matches. I'm not questioning his talent, I'm questioning his ability to stay on the park if South Africa bat 140-160 overs in their first innings.

Lyon benefits when his team are steam rolling, he doesn't take too many when they're not. If Johnson does a Patrick Cummins over there and rips apart the South Africans, Lyon will be a good chance at taking wickets. If Lyon finds himself bowling against a settled De Villers, Amla or Du Plessis, good luck. I don't see him being at all effective against them.

 

[sphynx]

@Flem

Key word, "Last Time" - The last couple of seasons, the amazing run of form he had has been dropping away, which coincided with what two events? 1. His back issues starting to flare up massively and 2. No longer having Ponting or Hussey in the side to soak up some of the pressure he now faces as being the best batsman in the squad. He's generally walking out there now thinking "Well, I can trust Haddin to do a job for me... but Steve Smith? George Bailey?" and in this series, he's generally done it when Australia are two down for not many.

His achievements against South Africa are great, he averages something like 70 against them from memory? But how many of those runs came at #4 without a consistent pair of opening batsmen, a world class #3, #4 and #6 being in the team beside him?

@Hendrix

Look at this series, how many did Warner score when the game was live? He made hardly any first innings runs and had the benefit of coming in to a second innings almost always with England completely out of the match. He's a great talent for see ball, hit ball but he doesn't have a Hayden like ability to do it consistently under pressure in all conditions.

Harris is the best bowler Australia have produced since Glen McGrath and possibly even as good if not better than McGrath, problem is he's amazingly injury prone and has been helped through this series by the fact that he's not been asked to find 25-30 overs across 2 days very often. Reports indicate that he has knee fluid leaking into his calf muscle causing major problems, that his hip on the opposing leg is starting to buckle and that he was touch and go for pretty much every match, assisted by the fact that Australia batted first in all three starting matches. I'm not questioning his talent, I'm questioning his ability to stay on the park if South Africa bat 140-160 overs in their first innings.

Lyon benefits when his team are steam rolling, he doesn't take too many when they're not. If Johnson does a Patrick Cummins over there and rips apart the South Africans, Lyon will be a good chance at taking wickets. If Lyon finds himself bowling against a settled De Villers, Amla or Du Plessis, good luck. I don't see him being at all effective against them.

Your were going ok, but completely fell apart here.

No, just no.

 

[Blocky]

Longevity makes McGrath far better, but statistically, they're very similar and performances from Harris have come during an era where bat has dominated the ball much more than it did during the bulk of McGrath's era.

 

[hendrix]

look we're just going in roundabouts now, aren't we?
I agree that South Africa should be major favourites. Better batsmen by a long way, extremely good opening bowlers, and only a weakness in the spin department.
Predicting whether a Harris injury occurs is a little silly though. It might happen, it might not. Dale Steyn could pull up for all we know. Lyon only needs to take downhill wickets. That's his exact role in the team outside of the subcontinent. Clean up the tail, get the odd batsman out.

 

[Blocky]

Predicting risk is exactly what most cricket sides need to do with their players, it's exactly why the rotation system exists and exactly why workload management exists. I can almost guarantee if South Africa bat 150 overs in their first innings of this series, Harris will be either injured or rested during the second test.

As for Lyon, so his hope is that his seamers tear the opposition apart and he comes on to mop up the tail? So what happens when the pace bowlers don't do it and he's expected to bowl 30-40 overs in a day against top order players? That's what we'll see in South Africa.

 

[morgieb]

Harris getting injured won't have that much of an impact IMO. Our bowling depth is pretty crazy - I reckon our B team seamers would make any international lineup except South Africa in the subcontinent.