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*Official* First Test at Trent Bridge

MW1304

MW1304

Cricketer Of The Year
Looks sublime for 19, then gets to 20 and every ball looks like getting him out. You can't write it.
 
Jnr.

Jnr.

First Class Debutant
This is outstanding bowling, great reverse swing. Rogers has done a good job of looking after the ball.
 
Ruckus

Ruckus

International Captain
Uppercut said:
. I.e. the probability of Clarke failing twice is low, but the probability of him failing twice given that he's already failed once is just as high as the probability of him failing once.
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this isn't gambling. They aren't independent events. Depending on the player, the context etc., the 'probability' will be slightly different. Clarke might feel extra pressure because of the last failure, or maybe he'll feel more determined to do well etc.
 
Uppercut

Uppercut

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MW1304 said:
Looks sublime for 19, then gets to 20 and every ball looks like getting him out. You can't write it.
Click to expand...
TBF that's more the ball starting to reverse and Patto coming on than anything about Bell. He's actually still been playing quite well I reckon.
 
Uppercut

Uppercut

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Ruckus said:
this isn't gambling. They aren't independent events. Depending on the player, the context etc., the 'probability' will be slightly different. Clarke might feel extra pressure because of the last failure, or maybe he'll feel more determined to do well etc.
Click to expand...
That's a separate argument though, and honestly not really a very convincing one.
 
Prince EWS

Prince EWS

Global Moderator
Have had a **** day, decide to watch some cricket and relax only to come in this thread and get Monte Carlo'd.

Screw you guys.
 
wpdavid

wpdavid

Hall of Fame Member
Uppercut said:
To be technical, you're looking at unconditional probability when the conditional probability is correct. I.e. the probability of Clarke failing twice is low, but the probability of him failing twice given that he's already failed once is just as high as the probability of him failing once.
Click to expand...
That's the one. A long time ago I could have written that as well, but it's been a while since my 'A' Level in Statistics.
 
King Pietersen

King Pietersen

International Captain
This ****ing Apple advert. One of the worst adverts on TV at the minute, and that's coming from a massive Apple fan. Full of bull****, it's too long, just ridiculously cheesy. Bring back the Mac vs PC adverts.

Bell did well at the end there. Struggled a little with Pattinson, but not surprising when he's reversing it at 85odd mph. Hopefully he'll be able to kick on and make a big score. We'll be pretty screwed if he doesn't.
 
C

Cricket Brain

School Boy/Girl Captain
Hard fought session from both teams. Few wickets early next session will push the advantage firmly into Australia's favour, while a solid partnership could be crucial for England. Not sure if Australia will be able to chase too much more than 150
 
LegionOfBrad

LegionOfBrad

International Debutant
I know I have said it before but Bairstow looks really fragile. He's still trying to angle his drives to leg. I understand they're trying to take a longterm view as they think he will grow into the role, but its really glaring.
 
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