In 5 years time

[Mike5181]

Hamish Rutherford
Martin Guptill
Kane Williamson (c)
Ross Taylor
Jesse Ryder
Will Young
BJ Watling+
Ish Sodhi
Tim Southee
Trent Boult
One of Henry, Milne, Wheeler, Small, Verma.

 

[MrPrez]

1. Quinton de Kock
2. Stiaan van Zyl
3. Hashim Amla
4. Rilee Rossouw
5. AB de Villiers
6. Faf du Plessis
7. Dane Vilas +
8. Chris Morris
9. Vernon Philander
10. Dale Steyn
11. Ayabulela Gqamane
(Lizaad Williams, Obus Pienaar)

1) de Kock
2) Elgar
3) Amla
4) de Villiers
5) Rossouw
6) Faf
7) Vilas/Duminy (depending on whether we push de Kock as a keeper or if we do what we did with de Villiers when he was young)
8) Philander
9) Steyn
10) Morkel
11) Subrayen

Extra youngsters to watch:
Diego Rosier
David Bedingham
Corne Dry
[forgotten first name] Savage
Andrew Birch
Marchant de Lange
Kyle Abbott

 

[iamdavid]

Tests
1. Hughes
2. Warner
3. Khawaja
4. Watson
5. Clarke
6. Steve Smith
7. Wade
8. Coulter-Nile
9. Starc
10. Pattinson
11. Lyon

Backing Watson to kick-on with the bat and stay fit once he gives up bowling, keeping him in the test side until 36. Cummins and Bird to be the quicks on the periphery who are regularly rotated with the other 3.

 

[Furball]

Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)

From 07/08 to 12/13 4 or 5 remain - Cook, KP, Bell, Prior,Panesar.

Would suggest that from 2012/13 to 17/18 the most likely number remaining is 3,4 or 5.

If you'd picked the 2nd Test last time we were in New Zealand then you could add Anderson and Broad to the list of guys who are still around.

FWIW I don't really see any reason why Jimmeh won't be around in 4 years time. Hasn't played T20 for 3 years and I expect him to chuck ODIs after the World Cup to prolong his Test career.

 

[theegyptian]

If you'd picked the 2nd Test last time we were in New Zealand then you could add Anderson and Broad to the list of guys who are still around.

FWIW I don't really see any reason why Jimmeh won't be around in 4 years time. Hasn't played T20 for 3 years and I expect him to chuck ODIs after the World Cup to prolong his Test career.

true but that would mean that only Vaughan remained from the 02/03 team that played in 08. It averages out at about 4 players remaining either way. And given that at around 07/08 england were at the start of a new cycle of players by 2018 I'd guess that they would be just at the start of a new cycle.

It's only predictions and there is a lot more work that could be done on the statistics of career lengths - I've just briefly browsed some retirement ages.

England players recent careers seem to be on average shorter than other countries.

re Anderson. He could still be going given his fitness levels and he doesn't rely on pure pace. But rarely do international bowlers of any country go far past 35.

 

[Dan]

RVD doesn't care about ability he just wants the Stokes/Foakes/Woakes combination to be playing.

Well I rate Woakes, and if I include Bopara ahead of Stokes we all know what would happen. Foakes not that much of a stretch, is it?

You're right though, it would be a fantastic middle order combination

@Prez, Subrayen was the name I was looking for. And I completely forgot about de Lange. If even half the young quicks kick on, bloody hell South Africa has depth in the pace department.

Steyn, Morkel, Philander, de Lange, Morris, Abbott, Gqamane, Williams, Pienaar. Good bunch there.

 

[FBU]

true but that would mean that only Vaughan remained from the 02/03 team that played in 08. It averages out at about 4 players remaining either way. And given that at around 07/08 england were at the start of a new cycle of players by 2018 I'd guess that they would be just at the start of a new cycle.

It's only predictions and there is a lot more work that could be done on the statistics of career lengths - I've just briefly browsed some retirement ages.

England players recent careers seem to be on average shorter than other countries.

re Anderson. He could still be going given his fitness levels and he doesn't rely on pure pace. But rarely do international bowlers of any country go far past 35.

Even if Anderson stays fit I can't see him playing past 34. They just won't pick him rather than him retiring from international cricket. Maybe he will carry on for 3 or 4 years with Lancs. Probably Woakes would be opening the bowling with Finn.

Wright and Topley opening the bowling for the Lions against Victoria - Wright 2-0-22-0 Topley 2-0-18-0

 

[theegyptian]

fwiw i was thinking about this again

Age at which England regulars of the last 10/15 years played their last game

Strauss 35, Collingwood 34, Harmison 30, Flintoff 31, Vaughan 33, Sidebottom 32, Hoggard 31, Trescothick 30, Giles 33, Butcher 32, Hussain 36, Alex Stewart 40, Gough 32, Atherton 33, Caddick 34, Hick 34, Ramprakash 32

mean age is 33.05
batsmen age is 33.9
bowling age is 31.86

Now look at how the team changed over 5 year period.

Test -2007/08

Cook, Vaughan, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bopara, Prior, Sidebottam, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar(SL Dec 2007 )

Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)


Test – 2002/03

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, White, Giles, Caddick, Hoggard, Jones(1st test vs Aus 2002)

Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Key, Crawley, Stewart, Dawson, Caddick, Hoggard, Harmison(5th test 2003)


Today – Cook, Compton,Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Root,Prior, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson, (Panesar, Bresnan, Bairstow)

From 2002/03 to 07/08 Vaughan, Hoggard and Harmison were the only 3 remaining. From 07/08 to 12/13 4 or 5 remain - Cook, KP, Bell, Prior,Panesar.

Would suggest that from 2012/13 to 17/18 the most likely number remaining is 3,4 or 5.




Test in 5 years time – Cook(33), Compton(34),Trott(36), Pietersen(37), Bell(35), Root(27),Prior(35), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28), Anderson (35)

Given the data provided earlier I'd predict

Cook, Finn and Root are the only three I would say are likely to be still playing in 5 years time. I'd imagine one of KP, Bell or Trott will still be going. My guess is Trott is still going- came to test cricket late and seems to just love batting. Bell will be dropped sometime in the future for bad form, and KP has been complaining about the schedule for the last couple of years so he's unlikely to make it.

Compton probably isn't good enough and will be dropped well before 5 years. Prior has a dodgy achilles which he is constantly managing and a lot of promising wicketkeeping batsmen who will challenge for his place in a few years. Swann with his elbow no chance. Anderson is fit but not one english fast bowler of recent times has made it to 35.

Even with Broad you have to doubt if he makes it another 5 years, given he's already got 5 years of regular cricket in all formats behind him and is quite injury prone and inconsistent with form.

The team I selected though probably has the wrong balance with too many young players

Cook (33), Chopra (30), Root(27), Ballance(28), Thakor(24), Stokes(26), A Davies(23), Overton(23), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23). Avg age 26.6

It's much more likely to have a few more current lions players in place of the really young players. I'd suggest something like this

Cook(33), Chopra(30), Trott(36), Root(27), Taylor(28), Stokes(26), Bairstow(28), Broad(31), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23) avg age 28.9

This post is quite relevant imo given what's happened with Swann and Trott.

For whatever reason it seems like English players retire or play their last test quite early- and without doing any extra research probably earlier than most other nations.

 

[GIMH]

Probably related to them playing more cricket than most nations

 

[FBU]

Was looking for a KP v de Villiers post and came across this.
Well 5 years have passed. How did you do with your predictions?

 

[Gnske]

I'm a sucker for these kind of teams

AUS ODI 2018
1. Aaron FINCH
2. Glenn MAXWELL
3. Peter HANDSCOMB
4. Steve SMITH
5. Travis HEAD
6. Moises HENRIQUES
7. Tim LUDEMAN
8. James FAULKNER
9. Mitchell STARC
10. Patrick CUMMINS
11. Jon HOLLAND

AUS TEST 2018
1. David WARNER
2. Phillip HUGHES
3. Joe BURNS
4. Usman KHAWAJA
5. Peter HANDSCOMB
6. Moises HENRIQUES (vc)
7. Tim PAINE
8. James PATTINSON
9. Peter SIDDLE (c)
10. Mitchell STARC
11. Cameron BOYCE

How did you see Tim Paine renaissance before any of us?

 

[Zinzan]

How did you see Tim Paine renaissance before any of us?

Any points he picks up for Paine, he loses more for not picking Smith in the Test side.

 

[NUFAN]

How did you see Tim Paine renaissance before any of us?

Any points he picks up for Paine, he loses more for not picking Smith in the Test side.

Haha. Just had a look at the Test team when I named my XIs.

Warner Cowan Hughes Clarke Hussey Wade Johnson Siddle Starc Lyon Bird.

Smith definitely had a period where he just didnt look Test quality. Cummins was left out because of injuries. Handscomb while just out of the Test team was a decent selection, Siddle as captain was wishful, Boyce was a poor selection no doubt. Pattinson Hughes and Burns were all fair selections too. Paine, yep that was a good one.

For ODIs, Ludes was a joke selection as I was a fan. Happy with selecting Head.

 

[morgieb]

Hughes
Warner
Khawaja
Burns
Clarke
Henriques
Wade
Pattinson
Starc
Cummins
Lyon

Bit conservative, but meh.

lol no Smith.

Probably should've known in hindsight that Clarke wouldn't last until he was 37 either.

Other than that...not too bad.

 

[Pothas]

Cook
Root
Vince
Bell
Bairstow
Prior
Woakes
Broad
Dockrell
Anderson
Finn

Well not that bad I suppose, Dockrell the obvious big miss, nice to see my misplaced faith in Vince has gone back so long.

Also a reminder of how quickly Prior's career came to an end, seems like an age since he was playing for England but he looked such a long term presence back then.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Can say the same with Bell. Had his best ever series in 2013 ashes and then hardly scored a run after that and deserved to be dropped long before he was.

 

[FBU]

OK I was bored. So I decided to try and decide what the England team would look like in 5 years time. Obviously predicting this kind of thing is stupid given the timeframe and I have no particular insight into English cricket and the young players coming through - apart from the occasional report and tv game.

Test

Cook (C) (Essex)
Chopra (Warwickshire)
Root (Yorkshire)
Ballance (Yorkshire)
Thakor (Leicestershire)
Stokes (Durham)
A Davies(WK) (Lancashire)
Finn (Middlesex)
J Overton (Somerset)
Topley (Essex)
Kerrigan (Lancashire)


Anyone with some time care to predict the makeup of some other nations in 5 years time?

What have they been up to?

Cook 46.22 (65)
Chopra moved from Warks to Essex cc 34.96
Root now captain 52.90 (64)
Ballance 37.45 (23)
Thakor - 3 year community order and on *** offenders' register for 5 years. Banned by ECB for 6 months
Stokes - affray trial in August 35.72/33.93 (39)
Davies cc 35.85
Finn 33.16 (19)
Overton cc 34.79 (38)
Topley cc27.43 17 (22) last played f/c May 2017
Kerrigan cc moved from Lancs to N'hants 31.55

 

[TheJediBrah]

I'm a sucker for these kind of teams

AUS ODI 2018
1. Aaron FINCH
2. Glenn MAXWELL
3. Peter HANDSCOMB
4. Steve SMITH
5. Travis HEAD
6. Moises HENRIQUES
7. Tim LUDEMAN
8. James FAULKNER
9. Mitchell STARC
10. Patrick CUMMINS
11. Jon HOLLAND

AUS TEST 2018
1. David WARNER
2. Phillip HUGHES
3. Joe BURNS
4. Usman KHAWAJA
5. Peter HANDSCOMB
6. Moises HENRIQUES (vc)
7. Tim PAINE
8. James PATTINSON
9. Peter SIDDLE (c)
10. Mitchell STARC
11. Cameron BOYCE

Nufan calling Tim Paine 5 years ago very impressive

 

[vcs]

I wouldn't say particularly so TBH.. Haddin was obviously not going to last 5 more years at that stage and Paine had already played some Tests. Dunno if Wade/Nevill etc. were considered to be sure-fire long-term keepers by then.

 

[Daemon]

The best thing NUFAN predicted was how different the LO and Test sides would be