fwiw i was thinking about this again
Age at which England regulars of the last 10/15 years played their last game
Strauss 35, Collingwood 34, Harmison 30, Flintoff 31, Vaughan 33, Sidebottom 32, Hoggard 31, Trescothick 30, Giles 33, Butcher 32, Hussain 36, Alex Stewart 40, Gough 32, Atherton 33, Caddick 34, Hick 34, Ramprakash 32
mean age is 33.05
batsmen age is 33.9
bowling age is 31.86
Now look at how the team changed over 5 year period.
Test -2007/08
Cook, Vaughan, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bopara, Prior, Sidebottam, Harmison, Hoggard, Panesar(SL Dec 2007 )
Cook, Vaughan, Strauss, Pietersen, Bell, Collingwood, Ambrose, Sidebottom, Hoggard, Harmison, Panesar(NZ march 2008)
Test – 2002/03
Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, White, Giles, Caddick, Hoggard, Jones(1st test vs Aus 2002)
Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Key, Crawley, Stewart, Dawson, Caddick, Hoggard, Harmison(5th test 2003)
Today – Cook, Compton,Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Root,Prior, Broad, Swann, Finn, Anderson, (Panesar, Bresnan, Bairstow)
From 2002/03 to 07/08 Vaughan, Hoggard and Harmison were the only 3 remaining. From 07/08 to 12/13 4 or 5 remain - Cook, KP, Bell, Prior,Panesar.
Would suggest that from 2012/13 to 17/18 the most likely number remaining is 3,4 or 5.
Test in 5 years time – Cook(33), Compton(34),Trott(36), Pietersen(37), Bell(35), Root(27),Prior(35), Broad(31), Swann(38), Finn(28), Anderson (35)
Given the data provided earlier I'd predict
Cook, Finn and Root are the only three I would say are likely to be still playing in 5 years time. I'd imagine one of KP, Bell or Trott will still be going. My guess is Trott is still going- came to test cricket late and seems to just love batting. Bell will be dropped sometime in the future for bad form, and KP has been complaining about the schedule for the last couple of years so he's unlikely to make it.
Compton probably isn't good enough and will be dropped well before 5 years. Prior has a dodgy achilles which he is constantly managing and a lot of promising wicketkeeping batsmen who will challenge for his place in a few years. Swann with his elbow no chance. Anderson is fit but not one english fast bowler of recent times has made it to 35.
Even with Broad you have to doubt if he makes it another 5 years, given he's already got 5 years of regular cricket in all formats behind him and is quite injury prone and inconsistent with form.
The team I selected though probably has the wrong balance with too many young players
Cook (33), Chopra (30), Root(27), Ballance(28), Thakor(24), Stokes(26), A Davies(23), Overton(23), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23). Avg age 26.6
It's much more likely to have a few more current lions players in place of the really young players. I'd suggest something like this
Cook(33), Chopra(30), Trott(36), Root(27), Taylor(28), Stokes(26), Bairstow(28), Broad(31), Finn(28), Kerrigan(28), Topley(23) avg age 28.9