**Official** South Africa in England 2012

[Briony]

If Petersen and Smith can't bat, SA could be vulnerable.

 

[Viscount Tom]

They've always got Amla and Rudolph to open, the former been one I can't really work out why he doesn't anyway.

 

[LegendaryProtea]

Unless it rains for a prolonged period, I think England will win this. Assuming 98 overs each day, that's 196 overs over the two days. Currently trail by 68 runs with 5 wickets left. Both the current batsmen and the following bowling ARs are attacking players and it's very feasible they bat for about 45 overs at about 4 r.p.o giving England a lead of 110 or thereabouts with still 150 overs remaining in the Test. If South Africa bat at 3 rpo for 110 overs then that gives them a lead of 220 with still 40 overs to chase it down. With Pietersen in this form, it's doable. So South Africa will have to bat over 110 overs to be assured safety. Smith and Petersen both injured and if they do bat, unlikely to be at their best, Rudolph is **** and you can't back our tail to be out there for extended periods. It's just about Kallis, Amla and AB. They need to get a good 150-200 run partnership somewhere along the line else I fear England will level the series.

Nothing taken away from KP though, just sheer class. England annihilated in the first Test, in danger of being seriously behind in the second and then in one session, South Africa's series hopes are in jeopardy unless they have a very good 4th day. We'll be fortunate to save this.

 

[Jager]

Certainly worth staying up until four in the morning to watch Pietersen go nuts. Hopefully he cashes in and converts it to a 200+ score

 

[Burgey]

Unless it rains for a prolonged period, I think England will win this. Assuming 98 overs each day, that's 196 overs over the two days. Currently trail by 68 runs with 5 wickets left. Both the current batsmen and the following bowling ARs are attacking players and it's very feasible they bat for about 45 overs at about 4 r.p.o giving England a lead of 110 or thereabouts with still 150 overs remaining in the Test. If South Africa bat at 3 rpo for 110 overs then that gives them a lead of 220 with still 40 overs to chase it down. With Pietersen in this form, it's doable. So South Africa will have to bat over 110 overs to be assured safety. Smith and Petersen both injured and if they do bat, unlikely to be at their best, Rudolph is **** and you can't back our tail to be out there for extended periods. It's just about Kallis, Amla and AB. They need to get a good 150-200 run partnership somewhere along the line else I fear England will level the series.

Nothing taken away from KP though, just sheer class. England annihilated in the first Test, in danger of being seriously behind in the second and then in one session, South Africa's series hopes are in jeopardy unless they have a very good 4th day. We'll be fortunate to save this.

Gambhiring of the highest order. Well done.

 

[LegendaryProtea]

Gambhiring of the highest order. Well done.

Did you just contribute because you saw it as an opportunity to use one of your invented phrases, which you mistakenly seem to think is incredibly clever and impressive? Is my analysis wrong or overly unrealistic in any way? Have I said anywhere that South Africa are totally gone and will not win/draw the match or series? I just fancy England to win from here and if they do, you'd fancy them at Lord's too. Based on the current state of the match, it's perfectly plausible that that happens and I would say it's likely.

 

[wpdavid]

If Petersen and Smith can't bat, SA could be vulnerable.

Yeah, you've been desperately unlucky with those two injuries and I'm sure England reckon they have a chance of winning this. It'll also be the first time in the series that AB's had to bat after WKing for a lengthy period of time.

KP's totally altered the game-plan. 24 hours ago, I reckoned that England's best chance was to get to about 350 and hope for a ludicrous SA collapse leaving a sub-200 target. Now we're talking about achieving a serious lead. That being said, some of the talk about batting until tea is hugely optimistic. SA will come back much stronger than they finished yesterday and the two teams could still be pretty even after the first innings. Fascinating game if the weather holds.

 

[wpdavid]

Here's the weather for the next few days

BBC Weather : Headingley

 

[Burgey]

What was Smith's injury?

 

[BoyBrumby]

What was Smith's injury?

Hilarious.

Nah, he chunked down to deep backward point from slip in a (successful) attempt to stop a boundary, slid with all the gracefulness of a walrus on dry land and came up holding his side.

Won't pretend I like the bloke, but obvz don't wish that on him. He is too fat for purpose currently tho; reckon he could stand to lose at least a couple of stone.

 

[uvelocity]

? Is my analysis wrong or overly unrealistic in any way? Have I said anywhere that South Africa are totally gone and will not win/draw the match or series? I just fancy England to win from here and if they do, you'd fancy them at Lord's too. Based on the current state of the match, it's perfectly plausible that that happens and I would say it's likely.

well it's probably on the lower end, but I too have been waiting for some saffer gambhiring so you can't really blame burgey for getting amongst it.

you're welcome to fancy england, it could happen. But to have them as favourites from here or to even say them to win is likely, is well, a bit unrealistic.

 

[Uppercut]

Pietersen is the best batsman in the England side by so far it isn't funny. Always laugh at the calls for his dropping on here by the abacus-crunchers who have a greater feel for their calculator than they do the game of cricket. He's the only player in the top six who can play pace and spin with equal alacrity, and pretenders like Strauss, Bell, Trott et al only wish they had his stroke making ability. Cook's an accumulator but he's not in Pietersen's class as an all wicket player of pace and spin.

Waiting on a spreadsheet to counter this argument, of course.

Haha did someone argue KP should be dropped?

 

[LegendaryProtea]

you're welcome to fancy england, it could happen. But to have them as favourites from here or to even say them to win is likely, is well, a bit unrealistic.

Well, a South African victory is virtually impossible now. Would have to get 15 English wickets and score about 300 runs to win all in 2 days with high possibilities of rain. So, it's either gonna be a draw or an England win.

I think two main things have to happen for England to win. First, this partnership needs to keep going for another 20 overs or so (the fast scoring will come naturally as both are aggressive) and KP should get near or past 200 and then guys like Broad and Bresnan can try and come in and score quick 20s so that a lead of 100 plus is established as Tea time approaches. Is that unrealistic? Don't really think so.

Secondly, the South African batting order will need to be re-jigged or significantly affected. If we have to push someone like Amla up to open then he is exposed to the new ball and guys like Kallis might have to come in earlier than planned. While the batting on the tour thus far has been good from South Africa, a couple of disruptions to the opening pair and all that can change. Of course, it's also dependent on stuff like weather and how the pitch plays.

Hopefully I'm just being overly pessimistic but I am approaching this day with a relative amount of dread. Getting Pietersen early is a must.

 

[uvelocity]

draw is the favourite, but a) they are still behind and b) they have to bat last

would be great for the series for poms to win and bring it to a decider. although a draw at lords and a drawn series would be a bummer

I reckon petersen will still open anyway, but amla is well used to the new ball. hit 311* after coming in in the third over if you recall. Smith would need to be dead to not open.

my god taylors helmet

 

[BoyBrumby]

Well, a South African victory is virtually impossible now. Would have to get 15 English wickets and score about 300 runs to win all in 2 days with high possibilities of rain. So, it's either gonna be a draw or an England win.

I think two main things have to happen for England to win. First, this partnership needs to keep going for another 20 overs or so (the fast scoring will come naturally as both are aggressive) and KP should get near or past 200 and then guys like Broad and Bresnan can try and come in and score quick 20s so that a lead of 100 plus is established as Tea time approaches. Is that unrealistic? Don't really think so.

Secondly, the South African batting order will need to be re-jigged or significantly affected. If we have to push someone like Amla up to open then he is exposed to the new ball and guys like Kallis might have to come in earlier than planned. While the batting on the tour thus far has been good from South Africa, a couple of disruptions to the opening pair and all that can change. Of course, it's also dependent on stuff like weather and how the pitch plays.

Hopefully I'm just being overly pessimistic but I am approaching this day with a relative amount of dread. Getting Pietersen early is a must.

SA are still nearly 70 ahead, tbf. Far from impossible they might still end up with a first innings lead. Bat until lunch tomorrow, 250+ lead and give England a sticky couple of sessions.

Draw massive favourite (2/7 with the bookies) but SA @ 12s look better value than England at 9/2.

 

[Briony]

draw is the favourite, but a) they are still behind and b) they have to bat last
would be great for the series for poms to win and bring it to a decider. although a draw at lords and a drawn series would be a bummer

I reckon petersen will still open anyway, but amla is well used to the new ball. hit 311* after coming in in the third over if you recall. Smith would need to be dead to not open.

my god taylors helmet

If England pushes on it may be SA batting last.

 

[Spark]

Yeah, weather permitting you'd think that with Bresnan, Broad to come and an old-ish ball, England will be targeting quite a healthy lead.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

I guess the match depends on how fit Smith and Peterson are for batting in the 2nd innings. No runners allowed so the scoring rate will drop as they won't be taking many singles and 2's become 1's etc...

Even a 100 lead could be enough if England take some early wickets with injured players to come in later on. Suppose this game hinges on how fit these two are.

 

[LegionOfBrad]

Bumble just tweeted that Smith will field and is fit. But Kallis is injured and won't bowl.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Bumble just tweeted that Smith will field and is fit. But Kallis is injured and won't bowl.

I guess Smith can just stand at slip though and other slips/gully have to chase anything behind. Means he can open at least.