It'll all be on the new Aussie quicks against our top order. It's one thing to say Aus are top heavy because of the likes of Watson, but he's long since batted until the 12th over and the Aussies are perfectly used to that, while we've been relying on hundreds from the top three or it all goes to ****.
Their middle order looks a lot stronger, and a lot of it's from the lack of testing ours has had. We've either had them in during a collapse or in the final few overs. when was the last time we had a healthy scoring partnership from, say, 100/3? Doesn't seem to happen. and while Bresnan would be one of the top #8s around, even I'll admit there are much better #7s.
That said, a big part of the reason we haven't seen much of 4,5,6 is because the top three really have been so good lately. We've also got the better spinner and, I'll venture, the better fielding side (as a bit of a guess because I don't know much about the Aus bowlers).
Home advantage plays a big part for us too with all the wet around. a lot of people thought India would smash us last year just because it was England v India, but we got the ball to swing and got into the top order on a regular basis. Warner, Wade and the like could well be susceptible too. We've won against every team in the world on their last tour here bar NZ back in 2008, so clearly I haven't made this up.
From the squad, I'll play
Cook
Bell
Trott
Bopara
Morgan
Bairstow
Bresnan
Swann
Broad
Anderson
Finn
Doubt there's a point in Kieswetter unless he opens, and since Bell is the man in possession, he's out. There's plenty of pressure on Morgan to hold up that middle order (I still like Ravider's mediums more than I like his batting) and so it's tempting to play Patel ahead of Finn or someone, but I think our best shot is to play to our strengths and make sure we've enough bowling to get through the deep Aussie batting. If the tourists get past the top three, then I don't see Patel being that much help either way, personally.