How can you rightly assume Hawk-eye got the predictive path wrong every time it looks a touch dodgy? Human perception and prediction isn't flawless too you know. As you keep saying, it's about predicting what never happened.
Yeah, the 18 metres statement was an exaggeration, but it still stands that the software will almost always be reasonably accurate based on the the information it DOES know for sure, much more so than a human umpire at any rate. With a shorter length ball, there's more information than can be gathered on the ball's flight path after bouncing. With a fuller ball, there's less indication of the ball's future path, but much less time for any sideways deviation to occur, so the various factors cancel out.
Also, what's with this "making the umpires look bad" argument? If an umpire gets it wrong, I'm sure he can live with that, life goes on. If an umpire gets a lot of calls wrong, then he's obviously a **** umpire, which will unfortunately tend to make him look like a moron.