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If we can somehow bowl England out for no more than 400, I reckon we could still fight our way back into this game. 400 would be a lead of about 300, then we would need a big second innings of 500 or more to set them up for a decent chase (or make a draw more likely).
A 500 or more second innings shouldn't be out of the question considering the pitch is very falt and the weather tommorow and onwards should be fine. However, we can only achieve that if Ponting, Hughes and Clarke step up for the first time in this series. And that's a big IF.
You may as well say, "we're not out of this because the entire England team might suddenly and randomly be struck down with typhoid on day 3, enabling Australia to salvage a draw after failing to hit the stumps in any of the last ten overs of the match against a passed-out Chris Tremlett lying flat on his face in front of the stumps."