*Official* Warne vs Murali Discussion

[Ikki]

His SR is two wickets per ball faster. With respect to the wickets per match, that is a difference of ~3.3 balls. So you have 3.3 balls more or 4 runs less conceded. It's really not a world apart; although I'd agree that it does not make up the difference but it certainly does not make them incomparable.

Furthermore, I don't think of Warne as a wicket-taking machine a la Brett Lee. My point was 4 runs less conceded will never replace an important wicket taken. Warne certainly had a knack of taking important wickets - more so than Murali IMO - and that's why it really doesn't matter to me that Warne is a bit more expensive ER wise. The trade off is he makes things happen.

Or if you think that SR and economy are of similar importance.... just use averages

I kind of am. And a difference of 1.22 runs on average isn't enough to make them incomparable.

 

[Migara]

Haha, it seems you ignored my Wasim and McGrath example. Are they more differed statistically or not?

McGrath > Wasim easily. When Wasim's longevity factor comes in the gap narrows.

 

[Ikki]

Although I disagree, that wasn't necessarily my question. I am asking would you find it incomparable for someone to rate Wasim against McGrath?

 

[Migara]

With pure stats no. Add longevity to it Yes.

In Murali vs Warne case, with pure stats Yes, comparable, when you add the longevity, no, not comparable.

Akram: 439 @ 24.39, ER: 3.95, SR: 36.9
ROW: Avg: 32.39, ER: 4.44, SR: 43.7

McGrath: 337 @ 22.75, ER: 3.97, SR: 34.3
ROW: Avg: 33.12, ER: 4.68, SR: 42.4


Gobal values: Avg: 32.43, ER: 4.52, SR:42.9

 

[ankitj]

His ER is 0.28 runs better. Which means 2.8 runs cheaper per match.

What that translates into is 500 runs over the entire career of Warne. And of course, Murali played right through the last decade. The difference between their ERs was bigger in 2003 when Warne played his last match.

 

[ankitj]

In ODIs, economy is much more important than SR IMO. Seeing as you can effectively take 0 wickets in an ODI and win.

Exactly my opinion too. While in tests I tend to remember averages and SRs of bowlers, only ER sticks in my mind about bowlers.

 

[Ikki]

Longevity...I guess. But that was never brought up and in your picking and prodding of the stats which you were using to say they were incomparable.

Warne played almost 200 ODIs which is long enough for me to gauge how good he was. Although, if you look at it in terms of a fulfilled career, what have you, I can see people picking Murali (and I do and I have no problem with it).

 

[Migara]

Adjusted values for Wasim: Avg: 24.42, ER: 4.02, SR: 36.22
Adjusted values for McGrath: Avg: 22.27, ER: 3.83, SR: 34.70

It is evident that McGrath stands quite a way ahead of Wasim with those stats. Only difference is Wasim has taken 40% more wickets than McGrath, and that is a huge achievement. So they become comparable.

 

[ankitj]

I am now actually tempted to do a t-test assuming Normal distribution to show that a difference of 4 runs per match is statistically significant. That will be too much of math, but knowing myself, I might actually end up doing that

 

[Migara]

I am now actually tempted to do a t-test assuming Normal distribution to show that a difference of 4 runs per match is statistically significant. That will be too much of math, but knowing myself, I might actually end up doing that

Well first you have to find out whether it fits in a t distribution. IMO, n > 30, you don't use t test and Z test becomes the default. For z test it should be a standard normal deviation or something close to it. Otherwise you have to go in to cumbersome stats like skewness and kurtosis. I actually feel bit sick when I see those words even.

 

[Ikki]

They're not incomparable, even if Wasim played the same amount as McGrath. With stats as close as that I'd be more interested in match-winning performances, performances against the best, etc.

The above is akin to saying Sobers can't compare with Tendulkar.

 

[Migara]

They're not incomparable, even if Wasim played the same amount as McGrath. With stats as close as that I'd be more interested in match-winning performances, performances against the best, etc.

The above is akin to saying Sobers can't compare with Tendulkar.

If you call them "close", Ok it's your opinion, but use them similarly for each and every one. For me, half a run difference in adjusted averages with X 1.6 times more matches is good enough for incomparability.

 

[Ikki]

We'll agree to disagree on that I guess. At least you've explained your view so I appreciate that.

 

[ankitj]

Well first you have to find out whether it fits in a t distribution. IMO, n > 30, you don't use t test and Z test becomes the default. For z test it should be a standard normal deviation or something close to it. Otherwise you have to go in to cumbersome stats like skewness and kurtosis. I actually feel bit sick when I see those words even.

I do this routinely as part of my job

 

[vcs]

Well, in case of McGrath and Akram they are very much comparable because while Akram has the longevity factor in his favour, McGrath's average and SR are slightly better. Both have the big match performances to their name (though Akram's '92 efforts were probably more eye-catching). In case of Warne and Murali, Murali has the stats and the longevity in his favour. Difficult to make a case for Warne.

All IMO, of course.

 

[Ikki]

If you're talking about the stats Migara and I boiled it down to; not at all. Stats-wise they're close. But having those stats for a much longer amount of time makes Murali's stats more impressive.

In terms of big match performances...ehem.

 

[robelinda]

Hang on, i was just skimming throuhg posts, just woken up, did I read somewhere that Gurusinha 'smoked' Warned??? I take whoever said that didnt actually see many of those matches where he averaged 50 vs Australia. That MCG ton was full of plays and misses. What i HATE about stats and comments like that is just because I guy averaged 50 against an opponent or got a ton doesnt mean he 'smoked' every bowler in the attack, that is an absurd line of thinking. Irritates the hell out of me. No doubt Gurusinha played well but in that MCG inings but he basically had no idea apart from the "attempt to save the match ton", which was quality but he dominated the pace bowlers, If I recall in Perth Warne had him in all sorts of trouble, Ranantunga too.

 

[akilana]

Not only stat-wise Murali's ahead of Warne but also in terms of big match performances.

 

[Prince EWS]

PEWS is old..

Yeah..not exactly your uncle is he

Haha, great great great great uncle. Still an uncle.

 

[G.I.Joe]

PEWS is known to be very liberal when it comes to explaining away massive age gaps between two people