It's a big fat "IF" what is the predominating scenario. As lone wolves are getting more big hauls, they are also prone to be very expensive in long spells. In such circumstances anyone will love to bowl to a new guy. That is the exact scenario in a pack.
But it's not a big fat IF. They generally take a lot of wickets and have a large proportion of big hauls. In Murali's case, IIRC,
almost half his overall innings
are big hauls. They're not prone to suffering when they take big hauls as the stats of 4+ hauls below show clearly they benefit . Murali for example - 4wickets+: avg. 15.81 sr 41.0
It's not the same unless you are blind. Murali clearly benefits from a 150 ball spell compared to Warne. I earlier pointed out that Hadlee's wicket less innings may contain very small spells where the match would have been over within 10 - 15 overs. You have not done a correction on them it seems.
Nope, you've interpreted those stats incorrectly. All it shows is that in matches where Murali only has to bowl 150 balls he benefits more - but that is because of the dynamics of his team; wherein if a match ends that early he will usually end up with better figures as he will be more responsible for it. It doesn't necessarily mean he is better in the first 150 balls than Warne. For Murali, such matches that end earlier will be much less than Warne and in those matches he will have contributed more. We don't know, for example, how Murali did in his first 150 balls in matches where he bowled 150+ because those don't go in that sample.
Also, many of these matches are the Bangladeshi ones which exaggerate his stats.
It's practically the same sort of thing as a batsman averaging higher in wins when in a weaker side.
And there goes a 60% of times that they will not benefit being the lobe wolf. 60% > 40%!
But you've missed it again: if Murali benefits more proportionately from his big hauls he is also less disadvantaged in the proportion of his smaller hauls.
It's like this; big hauls (4>) vs small hauls (<3):
Murali's big hauls which help = 47% of his innings.
Murali's small hauls which don't help = 53% of his innings.
Warne's big hauls which help = 31% of his innings.
Warne's small hauls which don't help = 69% of his innings.
Not only does Murali get a bigger proportion of bigger hauls to help, Warne gets the bigger proportion of smaller hauls which don't help.
These are the figures for the bowlers when they take <3 hauls (smaller hauls)
Code:
[B]AVG SR %[/B]
[B][URL="http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/6565.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=default;template=results;type=bowling;view=innings;wicketsmax1=3;wicketsval1=wickets"]McGrath[/URL][/B] 30.73 74.5 77
[B][URL="http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/37224.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=default;template=results;type=bowling;view=innings;wicketsmax1=3;wicketsval1=wickets"]Hadlee[/URL][/B] 41.58 89.7 59
[B][URL="http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/8166.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=default;template=results;type=bowling;view=innings;wicketsmax1=3;wicketsval1=wickets"]Warne[/URL][/B] 38.17 83.0 69
[B][URL="http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/49636.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=default;template=results;type=bowling;view=innings;wicketsmax1=3;wicketsval1=wickets"]Murali[/URL][/B] 39.14 88.2 53
And this is the stats for what they get when they take 4> hauls (big hauls).
McGrath
Overall: avg. 21.64 sr 51.9
4wickets+: avg. 11.99 sr 27.9
Hadlee
Overall: avg. 22.29 sr 50.8
4wickets+: avg. 13.97 sr 34.0
Warne
Overall: avg. 25.41 sr 57.4
4wickets+: avg. 15.76 sr 38.1
Murali
Overall: avg. 22.72 sr 55.0
4wickets+: avg. 15.81 sr 41.0
As you see, the ratios between Warne and Murali are more or less the same (warne a bit better on SR), but the biggest difference is that the proportion of the bigger hauls greatly favours Murali - 47% v 31%.
As I said above, to which you replied objecting, the smaller haul argument is really one for Hadlee as his stats in smaller hauls compared to McGrath's take a pounding. But then again, it's not much of an excuse because in those smaller hauls he's really not bowling much so it can't be explained through that.
Majority of the time a spinner bowl around 150 balls, not 200. Faster bowler even lesser. So get you cut off in the right place. Warne's B/I is 149. He has bowled 47% of times more than that. Murali's case he has bowled more than 194 deliveries (Avg B/I = 194) in 49% of times. So most of the time] they are bowling short spells is plain wrong. It is even stevens.
Um, your point actually backs up mine. I am looking at Hurricane's stats, assuming they're accurate.
As you can see, for example, with Hadlee of the spells 200+ it makes up only 20% of Hadlee's innings. Therefore in the majority (80%) of them he bowled between 0 and 200. This is probably moreso with the spinners. Whether that is 150 or 170 or 199 it doesn't matter because it falls in 0-200. As the stats below and your own show, their stats are fine in this division. In fact, Murali doesn't begin to suffer until 250+ balls which make only about 23-24% of his total innings. So the grand majority of the time he is not bowling anything that is troubling him. He's bowling a good amount, getting enough wickets, and in turn getting bigger hauls.
Code:
Hadlee
% of innings SR Wickets Wickets per inning
<100 balls 23% 38 58 2.64
100-150 balls 27% 41 124 3.0
150-200 balls 29% 55 137 3.1
200-250 balls 15% 64 75 3.4
250+ 5% 60 37 4.6
McGrath
% of innings SR Wickets Wickets/inning
<100 balls 33% 37 153 1.9
100-150 balls 39% 47 237 2.5
150-200 balls 22% 73 124 2.3
200-250 balls 5% 75 38 2.9
250+ 1% 47 11 5.5
Marshall
% of innings SR Wickets Wickets/inning
<100 balls 35% 34 114 2.1
100-150 balls 41% 51 150 2.4
150-200 balls 20% 52 98 3.3
200-250 balls 3% 76 14 2.8
