***Official*** Australia in South Africa

[TT Boy]

Have a very eerie feling SAF will get out of this game with something.

Of course, it could just be my pure rage and absolute frustration through watching my football team completely **** up yet again, but hey.

Nah, rain seems to have gone away...

Just nice to the see South Africans turn up today. Aus should still win by 150+ runs.

Like the look of McDonald. He would be a decent 5th bowling option.

 

[social]

If Australia lose/draw from this point then it's due to one of two things - terrible weather or horrid bowling.

Of those two enforcing the follow on only may have saved against the terrible weather outcome. But imagine if South Africa had have piled on enough runs for Australia to be chasing 150 odd in the forth innings and the weather had have been much the same as it has been so far. The results could have been dire.

For Oz to be chasing 150, SA would've had to have scored 390 odd

Given the conditions last night and early today, that would've taken a miracle

 

[Uppercut]

This is quite possibly true...pitches used to start of decent and get worse...now they can be tough to bat on for 3 days and then perfect, which suggests to me someone's doing something wrong. There's no advantage really in winning the toss if the 4th innings will be played on a pitch better to bat on than the first.

If there's no advantage in guessing the toss of a coin correctly in a match of any sport, someone's doing something absolutely right.

There isn't, interestingly. I had a look at results/toss winner over the past ten years in test matches in a thread a while back and you're pretty much exactly as likely to win a match after losing the toss as you are after winning it.

 

[TT Boy]

Big innings for Hashim, he needs to play more then an attractive cameo. Started like a train today.

 

[stephen]

If there's no advantage in guessing the toss of a coin correctly in a match of any sport, someone's doing something absolutely right.

There isn't, interestingly. I had a look at results/toss winner over the past ten years in test matches in a thread a while back and you're pretty much exactly as likely to win a match after losing the toss as you are after winning it.

This. Losing the toss should not mean you're automatically playing for a draw.

 

[pup11]

Well, good news is that there definitely will be a result. Still don't get why Ponting batted again, but obviously he has left plenty of time, so it worked out.

I am sure bowler fatigue would have been a big issue, and probably that's why he didn't enforce the follow-on.

Does Hilf have any other tricks apart from the out-swinger?

Excerpts from this article indicate he is working on a few balls, but given the swing on offer, he probably thought he is better off sticking to his strength, rather than trying too many things.

When critics began to question his ability to take wickets when the ball failed to swing away, he went off and worked on some new tricks.

"If you've only got one tool in your bag, you get a bit predictable," he said. "I've definitely worked on a few different things to counter for that and hopefully have an answer when blokes start getting on top. As well as the outswing I'm trying to develop one that goes in a little bit or straightens. Just to keep them guessing a little bit. There's a couple of different slower balls that I'm working on", but for Hilfenhaus the outswinger is still king.

 

[oitoitoi]

This is really starting to look like a different pitch compared to the first 3 days, even compared to this morning, the grass seems to have mostly gone and the sun's dried it out a bit too. Not good news for the Aussies at all.

 

[dontcloseyoureyes]

SAF are getting out of this without weather intervention, mark my words.

 

[Neil Pickup]

Anyone any idea of how to work StatsGuru to find:

W-D-L record for teams enforcing the follow on
W-D-L record for teams not enforcing the follow on when they had the chance to?

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

Tbh, if you can't figure it out, I'd guess it can't be done.

 

[pup11]

SAF are getting out of this without weather intervention, mark my words.

Yeah, the Aussie quicks just not showing the kind of discipline and application they did in the first innings, trying way too many things atm, whereas the concentration should have been on sticking with bowling in the right areas and being patient.

 

[Prince EWS]

Anyone any idea of how to work StatsGuru to find:

W-D-L record for teams enforcing the follow on
W-D-L record for teams not enforcing the follow on when they had the chance to?

I don't think it's possible.

 

[four_or_six]

All I can see is this for the three matches where there's been victory after a follow-on.

 

[Neil Pickup]

Doesn't seem that way. Perhaps it's worth an ask Stephen?

 

[oitoitoi]

Yeah, the Aussie quicks just not showing the kind of discipline and application they did in the first innings, trying way too many things atm, whereas the concentration should have been on sticking with bowling in the right areas and being patient.

Agreed, someone should tell Siddle to pitch it up, I thought people had now realised that Amla can play the short ball. Not so sure bringing North in with Amla at the crease is such a great idea.

 

[Neil Pickup]

All I can see is this for the three matches where there's been victory after a follow-on.

Thanks - I found that as well, but that's pretty much common knowledge. My feeling is that the chance of failing to win after not enforcing is far higher than the chance of failing to win after enforcing. Having said this, I also think the chance of losing after not enforcing is far lower than losing after enforcing.

So that bears another question - can anyone come up with a time when a team has:
(a) had the opportunity to enforce the follow on
(b) not done so
(c) gone on to lose?

 

[popepouri]

Smith loves these situations it seems.

 

[Prince EWS]

Anyone any idea of how to work StatsGuru to find:

W-D-L record for teams enforcing the follow on

I'm pretty sure this is it. I could be wrong though.

EDIT: I don't think that includes occasions where teams have won by an innings after enforcing the follow-on, actually.

 

[pup11]

Hilf...!!!

Massive wicket....

 

[Jamee999]

Would that include innings victories after follow-on being enforced?