It'd depend entirely. If it was the Sobers who was bowling well, he'd have a good chance of replacing some of those bowlers - plenty of them in fact. If it was the Sobers bowling poorly early on in his career, he might still replace them on perceived potential. After all, Johnson and Casson have been poor to date too. And Broad execrable.
Well to give just two examples
- Vettori has already played 83 Test matches for New zealand, mainly as a specialist bowler and has taken his wickets at 34.4 each.
- Harbhajan Singh in the last five years (since the 2003-04 series against New Zealand series at home) has played 34 Test matches and taken his wickets at 36.5 each and still continues to be the main bowler in the side. Infact, widely considered the best off spinner ion the world barring Murali, since Saqlain Mushtaq, Harbhajan's carrer average is already at 31.3 and if his present for continues, there is no doubt it will plummet further. I hope the Indian selectors do not take the advise of some worthies here.
It is very interesting here to mention how some of the world's best spinners of today are so heavily indebted to home conditions (where helpful to their type of bowling).
Kumble and Harbhajan are prime examples.
If you keep in mind that both Harbhajan and Kumble played about half their matches at home under conditions, generally better suited for spinners and Sobers played most matches in West Indies where conditions were not best for his type of bowling, one can see a very interesting trend.
Code:
[B]AT Bhajji Sobers Kumble[/B]
AUS 73.22 40.03 37.73
ENG 34.17 31.58 41.42
IND 26.26 26.75 24.28
WIN 26.08 34.12 31.29
Sobers played most Tests, outside West Indies (44), in England (21) and Australia (10). I have added India since Harbhajan and Kumble come from there. Sobers played 8 Tests in India.
It is so easy to see how the weighted average works for or against a player if he plays more games on a surface which suits him or not.
All of them have good figures in India but while Harbhajan has played over 55% of his matches here (37/67) and Kumble almost 48 (61/128), Sobers played under 9% of his Tests here.
Just take away the home figures of all three and you see the comparison. The home figures are within brackets.
Kumble :
- Average : 35.9 (24.3)
- Strike Rate : 74.6 (58.2)
Harbhajan :
- Average : 42.7 (26.3)
- Strike Rate : 81.1 (59.3)
Sobers :
- Average 33.4 (34.1)
- Strike rate : 89.9 (94.3)
And just see what a huge home advantage Indian spinners have. Not to speak of there being no easy wickets from Zimbabwe and Bangladesh available in the fifties and sixties.
And these are specialist spinners as is Vettori.
One can give other examples over the years. Giles is more recent but there have been others in the past.
It is fanciful to put so much emphasis on Sobers' average per wicket (never forgetting that he was a batsman who bowled) and downplaying his 235 wickets.