***Official*** South Africa in England

[Richard]

I reckon South Africa are going to score BIG in this innings - the pitch is looking slow and quite unresponsive.

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

Obviously I'm hoping Smith can score something massive, but he's still defending balls outside off. He needs to not do that if he's to score double-centuries again - as I've said so many times.

 

[Richard]

Broad on already. Not surprising given how ill-at-ease Sidebottom's looked so far today.

Never in favour of enforcing follow-ons when there's such a long time left in the match. Why on Earth wouldn't you bat again? There's virtually no chance of falling in a heap and losing with such a massive first-innings lead.

 

[Speersy]

Well the English bowlers got a nights rest basically between innings. So I see no reason not to enforce the follow on. The maximum they will be chasing on day 5 is what 150-200. Surely making them follow on is the best way to win the match.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Broad on already. Not surprising given how ill-at-ease Sidebottom's looked so far today.

Never in favour of enforcing follow-ons when there's such a long time left in the match. Why on Earth wouldn't you bat again? There's virtually no chance of falling in a heap and losing with such a massive first-innings lead.

Batting again with a lead of 350, meaning you can't possiblly lose the match, and with the possibility of losing time to the weather would be utter stupidity and a complete waste of time.

 

[Richard]

The forecast is for very little but sunshine for the next two days, and given there are two days left it's rather difficult to waste time.

There's no need to enforce the follow-on with two days left. You're as likely to win without as you are with.

 

[Speersy]

I think Richard is just readying himself up for a Smith double.

 

[Manee]

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

Why not? Might someone step on them?

 

[social]

Sidebottom mustnt be fit - considering his record over the last year you'd assume he'd be given an extended bowl with the new ball

In this match, he's looked sluggish and fat

 

[Richard]

This ball's hardly new any more. Unbeliebably scuffed for one just 14 overs old.

And as such, MSP on.

 

[Speersy]

How's the atmosphere at the game, pretty dull? Any swing?

 

[Richard]

I think Richard is just readying himself up for a Smith double.

I can't conceive it's remotely likely with the number of balls he's defended so far which he should be leaving.

 

[Richard]

How's the atmosphere at the game, pretty dull? Any swing?

Nope, no swing whatsoever, same now as for pretty much all SA's bowling innings. As I said, ball's been scuffed remarkably quickly.

Atmosphere is rarely if ever dull at Lord's though.

 

[Richard]

Well, Smith under-edges one and no-one appeals except the cover fielder.

And McKenzie gets away with an lbw off MSP. That were plumb, TBH.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

The forecast is for very little but sunshine for the next two days, and given there are two days left it's rather difficult to waste time.

There's no need to enforce the follow-on with two days left. You're as likely to win without as you are with.

That is just such utter nonsense. If they make a big score now there is still time at the end of their inning to score the winning runs. If you bat again and set them a target and they make a big score they could bat out the time in the process.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Huh. Snicko seems to suggest Smith had a life there. Under-edge & only Colly appealed.

McKenzie stone dead there too. What was that missing?!?

 

[Richard]

That is just such utter nonsense. If they make a big score now there is still time at the end of their inning to score the winning runs. If you bat again and set them a target and they make a big score they could bat out the time in the process.

The likelihood of them batting out four-and-a-half (or whatever it may be) sessions is tiny. The probability of a victory is increased by follow-on enforce, but the increase is miniscule. In the position England are currently in it'll take appalling bowling to fail to win, added to excellent batting from South Africa. And it's completely irrelevant whether that poor bowling and good batting should come in the third- or fourth-innings.

Compared to the advantages of not enforcing, the advantages of enforcing with so much time left are virtually non-existant.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

. The probability of a victory is increased by follow-on enforce..

Hence the reason for enforcing it.

 

[Speersy]

That is just such utter nonsense. If they make a big score now there is still time at the end of their inning to score the winning runs. If you bat again and set them a target and they make a big score they could bat out the time in the process.

Exactly and they can let loose with no inhibitions, knowing the score they have to get. The records show enforcing the follow on works, it would be interesting to discuss situations when not enforcing the follow on would be ideal, but thats another issue.

 

[Richard]

Hence the reason for enforcing it.

This game is the first of a series, and the first of back-to-back games. Sidebottom already appears somewhat tired on the fourth day of this game, and he's almost certainly going to have to bowl a fair bit more sometime today (and maybe tomorrow too).

If England manage to pull-off an easy victory here it'll be directly cancelled-out if they then bowl poorly next week (or, worse, have injuries to bowlers) and hence lose the next game. However, if they pull-off a victory later this game but are in better shape next week so therefore win again, this is rather more ideal.

 

[James90]

Exactly and they can let loose with no inhibitions, knowing the score they have to get.

Dwta. Even if they score at 5 an over, to have any chance of saving the test England can't be batting before lunch tomorrow. Keeping their wicket in tact is still much more important than runs at this stage.