Cape Town Preview
South Africa's record in the last 15 matches: 11-2-2. The
only team to beat them at Cape Town has been Australia. Without Australia, their record has been 11-2, with New Zealand and West Indies managing a draw. The hosts will take that type of record any day.
In the last fifteen matches, the team that has won the toss has elected to bat first 14 out of 15 times (it was a draw the singular time the side elected to field). Four victories have been by an innings, while four victories have been by defending a target and five by chasing.
Losing the toss does not seem to significantly affect the outcome of the game. In the matches that had results, the averages per wicket have been the following:
1st Innings: 33.7
2nd Innings: 35.8
3rd Innings: 25.0
4th Innings: 32.5
The average run rate is a touch over 3. Oddly enough, the 3rd innings seems to be the worst for batting, and chasing a total in the 4th innings is quite possible.
There have been following successful chases in the last fifteen matches:
South Africa (chasing 88): Won by 7 wickets
South Africa (chasing 67): Won by 10 wickets
Australia (chasing 337): Won by 4 wickets
Australia (chasing 95): Won by 7 wickets
South Africa (chasing 211): Won by 5 wickets
*
The following chases have been unsuccessful:
Australia (chasing 451): Made 280
India (chasing 427): Made 144
Sri Lanka (chasing 377): Made 306
West Indies (chasing 421): Made 271
England (chasing 501): Made 304
This shows that the pitch is pretty good to bat on in the 4th innings.
Any chase below around 250 has a good chance of being successful. The worst day to bat on seems to be around day four before the pitch starts becoming pretty good to bat on again on the final day.
Some information for individuals:
Makhaya Ntini: Doesn't really seem to enjoy this ground, with an average of 28.55 and no five wicket hauls (slightly above his career average) from 10 matches here.
Shaun Pollock: On the other hand, Pollock has been excellent here, with an average of 19.52, and 51 wickets from 11 matches.
Kallis: Loves this ground, averaging 67 from from 13 matches, including four centuries.
Prince: Averages about 50 from five matches, with one century.
Graeme Smith: Averages 54, from 8 matches, including two centuries.
So all in call, while Ntini will look to improve his record slightly, the other key players have been been excellent at the ground.
SA have to be the favorites, going by their superlative record at the ground (except vs Australia).
* Note: This was not a typical Cape Town wicket