Ricky Ponting : Beginning of the End?

[Fidel Castro]

"Everything that has a beginning, has an end"

Ricky Ponting has mesmerised and made us exclaim with his aggressive brand of cricket for so many years now. His statistics are testimony to his vast skill and superiority in the art of driving the opposition bowlers to submission. He has been there and done that, perhaps with the exception of a triple ton, which even his greatest peer, Sachin Tendulkar also lacks, and perhaps his play in India. Make no mistake, those stats become more or less irrelevant in the context of his full career so far. An average that hovered consistently around 60 for close to 4 years, without assistance from playing minnows, and truckloads of hundreds in a short span of time. No wonder, Australia's dominance in World Cricket can almost be exactly superimposed on the Tasmanian's career graph.

However, as they say, "Everything that has a beginning has an end"

Like all sportsmen, Ponting is no machine, but only human. His past few seasons have started to show this aspect more often than not. And statistics, being the double edged sword they are, are not exactly speaking for his cause. The downturn in fortunes have also reflected in a corresponding decline for the Australian Team as such.

Let's see the numbers :

Since Ashes 2007-08,

Opposition	Mat	Inns	NO	Runs	HS	Ave	SR	100	50
v India		8	14	0	534	140	 38.14 	54.04	2	2
v New Zealand	2	3	0	100	79	 33.33 	63.29	0	1
v South Africa	6	12	0	495	101	 41.25 	66.62	1	4
v Sri Lanka	2	3	1	140	56	 70.00 	55.33	0	2
v West Indies	3	6	0	323	158	 53.83 	65.25	1	1
									
Overall		21	38	1	1592	158	 43.02 	60.37	4	10

While most mortals would be chuffed with such an average in Test Cricket, it is disappointing for the masterly talent of Ponting. And the fall in form is even more drastic if his performances against West Indies, who have languished at the bottom of the tables for so long, and Sri Lanka, who hardly have anything to speak of outside Sri Lanka are discounted.

Since the beginning of the current season, the decline has been even more stark.

Opposition	Mat	Inns	NO	Runs	HS	Ave	SR	100	50
v India		4	7	0	266	123	 38.00 	50.86	1	1
v New Zealand	2	3	0	100	79	 33.33 	63.29	0	1
v South Africa	6	12	0	495	101	 41.25 	66.62	1	4
									
Overall		12	22	0	861	123	 39.13 	60.46	2	6

It is a record which Micheal Atherton would be proud of. However, his performances have hardly been match winning as they used to be in the past. And never before his weaknesses, particularly against quality fast bowling has been so apparent.

Which slowly but inexorably leads to the dreaded question, "Is he past the peak?"

 

[social]

Ignoring the fact that he's been injured for most of the time in question, his stats have dropped off and it's due to 2 things

a. Failure to convert starts; and

b. A technique that relies on keeness of eye and quick feet, both of which slow down as you get older

I wouldnt write him off just yet (as a return to fitness would "may" be all it needs) but certain worrying signs are there

 

[Jono]

I said this a while ago as well, and honestly believe he won't pass Sachin's total runs.

Ponting is an absolute legend, and easily in the top 3-4 batsman I've ever had the pleasure to watch. But he's played a **** load of cricket, and I think people forget how young he started. Just like so much cricket has taken its toll on Sachin, it will with Ponting too.

I imagine he'll still be a very very good test player for a few years, but I can see his batting average falling to around 53-54.

 

[Ikki]

Nah, just had a bad go of it in India and the team's had so much pressure, been chopped and changed, that it's probably been his most draining period as captain. I think once the team stabilises again he'll return to form. He's too good not to IMO. Even when he does decline I think it'll be slower than this, the guy's a run machine.

 

[NUFAN]

I voted that yes he's on a decline. I still suspect he'll do very well, it's just he's not going to be as consistent.

 

[Uppercut]

Susucambriastro.

 

[Evermind]

I said this a while ago as well, and honestly believe he won't pass Sachin's total runs.

Ponting has scored 10310 runs against non-minnows, a mere 805 behind Sachin (who has 11115 in 27 more innings). Sachin will definitely retire before Ponting, who will have roughly 27 innings to catch up on roughly 805 runs, assuming they both play equally well from hereon to Sachin's retirement. He needs to average about 30 runs per inning thereon to achieve that target. Barring a serious injury or drop in form, there's every reason to believe he'll do it comfortably.

Also interesting to note is the fact that Sachin has 36 centuries as opposed to Ponting's 35 - again in 27 more innings.

And really, who cares about runs against Zim and Bang?

 

[Fidel Castro]

What is remarkable is that it has been quite a while, and he has been making runs here and there, which suggests it may not be exactly a temporary blip. And as Social said above, the injuries are taking their toll on him. He's pushing 35, which is good old age in cricket, and I cannot see him reversing the current trend spectacularly.

Unless, of course, England has different plans. A dose or two of A Khans and S Mahmoods might just be what the doctor ordered.

 

[fredfertang]

I suspect standing down as captain would sort out his form - so I hope he doesn't

 

[Fidel Castro]

Ponting has scored 10310 runs against non-minnows, a mere 805 behind Sachin (who has 11115 in 27 more innings). Sachin will definitely retire before Ponting, who will have roughly 27 innings to catch up on roughly 805 runs, assuming they both play equally well from hereon to Sachin's retirement. He needs to average about 30 runs per inning thereon to achieve that target. Barring a serious injury or drop in form, there's every reason to believe he'll do it comfortably.

And really, who cares about runs against Zim and Bang?

Ouch a tad harsh on Tendulkar there. Agreed, he has scored tonloads against Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. However, what you have discounted is the fact that Zimbabwe were very much a competitive unit for most of Tendulkar's career, till the early 2000s. I'd even put the then Zimbabwe on par, if not above, today's New Zealand and West Indies.

Once you figure in those runs, it will be pretty difficult for Ponting to surpass Tendulkar, and considering that Tendulkar is seemingly ageing backwards these days, thanks to some cunning and intelligent management by Kirsten & Co., I can see him playing right till 2011, and that Ponting and Tendulkar might even retire at the same time.

 

[Mister Wright]

Of course he's in a decline. With the amount of cricket played to day it is very tough to continue to average high 50s. However, he's far from a Hussey like slump.

 

[BoyBrumby]

I suspect standing down as captain would sort out his form - so I hope he doesn't

Would agree there. On both counts, actually.

But seriously tho, what is the objection Australia has to selecting ex-rips once their captaincy has ended? It's not like Punter is exactly of the first water of captains anyway.

 

[biased indian]

ponting has scored 10310 runs against non-minnows, a mere 805 behind sachin (who has 11115 in 27 more innings). Sachin will definitely retire before ponting, who will have roughly 27 innings to catch up on roughly 805 runs, assuming they both play equally well from hereon to sachin's retirement. He needs to average about 30 runs per inning thereon to achieve that target. Barring a serious injury or drop in form, there's every reason to believe he'll do it comfortably.

Also interesting to note is the fact that sachin has 36 centuries as opposed to ponting's 35 - again in 27 more innings.

And really, who cares about runs against zim and bang?

...

 

[Evermind]

...

Great retort. Accurate and convincing.

 

[silentstriker]

Yes, I do think he is on the decline. However, decline does not mean a bad player, it just means not as good as he used to be. I think he will continue to be a good player, and I do think with the amount of Tests Australia play, he will overatake Sachin.

 

[Bonnie Prince C]

Yes Ponting is on the way down but the mighty always fall and it usually happens due to age. Ponting is getting older so will naturally become a worse player. Still he is a very good player and will score runs. However he may decide soon to bow out on top and call it a day.

 

[biased indian]

only problem with ponting is that will he continue to be in the team ones he step down as captain...if and when he is forced to do so..

who was the last australian captain to continue playing after he quit captaincy ??

 

[BoyBrumby]

who was the last australian captain to continue playing after he quit captaincy ??

Think Kim Hughes got a couple of tests after he had his blub. Sympathy vote, probly.

 

[age_master]

He has had a pretty rough summer. He is hitting the ball quite well still so i think he will be back to his best before too long.

 

[oitoitoi]

I really don't think comparing Ponting with either Tendulkar or Lara statistically has any purpose, it's almost universally considered that they were better batsmen than Ponting. One of Ponting's biggest problem's is that he plays for Australia, whenever people speak of the latter duo's greatness it's becase of their performances against Australia, obviously an opportunity Ponting never had. However personally I feel that both Mcgrath and Warne would have had the wood on Ponting fairly consistently, Mcgrath in particular. There's also the issue of Lara and Tendulkar playing in such poor teams for so long, Lara in particular.

Tendulkar's technique is so perfect and his all round cicket knowledge is so phenomenally complete that he will continue to score runs for a long time to come, personally I believe that he's batting better now than he ever has done, perhaps not with the sheer brilliance of his younger days but more efficiently and more risk free. Due to this, the total assurance of his place in the side and the fact that he's being rested from many one day fixtures I think he'll outlast Ponting and maybe even get the 100 international 100s.

I think the reasons for Ponting's obvious decline in form are:
1. Age and far too much cricket (he basically plays every game, even when he's not 100%) is wearing him down. His technique relies quite heavily on the lightning fast footwork that was once his trademark and a good eye (especially early in his innings).
2. People have to a small extent worked him out, he clearly doesn't like tha ball moving in towards his off stump and when the ball swings and there are bowlers who can exploit it he is vulnerable.
3. The quality of fast bowling has improved a bit over the last couple of years, the emergence of Steyn, Morkel, Khan and Sharma etc. has obviously made run scoring a bit more tricky.
4. Pressure, personally I don't think he's ever handled it all that well (for a player of his ability at least) and since the last ashes it's been mounting as his team's become significantly weaker. Add the captaincy to his role as the best player in the side and that's an awful lot of responsibility.
5. Opening pair, Hayden's rapid decline and Langer's reitrement left Australia vulnerable to the new ball for pretty much the first time in Ponting's career and he's been in early more than ever which can't make things any easier.

He may been in a bit of a decline (though he may yet score bags full in England against Broad and co.) he'll still be a mighty fine player. I think his average will probably end up around the 54 mark. 46 test hundreds? I know that Australia played something like 20+ tests over the last 18 months so I can't imagine their next year is all that busy, same with India and South Africa actually so not sure how many more tests he has left. I imagine that he may well be aiming to retire after the next Australian ashes series, especially after seeing Warne & co's send off last time round.