The Road to the 2009 Ashes

[aussie]

Well as a traditionalist with not much enticing test cricket series coming up within the next year IMO other than AUS in PAK (yes i am discounting Aus in Ind cause i't won't be the same as before & SA vs AUS 08/09 since they always choke againts Australia or neutral series i.e Ind vs Pak) the next real cricketening spectacle is the 2009 Ashes is arond 15 months & it has the potential to match the exploits of 2005 IMO.

To look at England first well post 2005 Ashes if it weren't for the injuries to so many key players, if England could have built on that team a la how Taylor & Waugh did with Australia i'd put my head on block to say England would have been the best side in the world today.

But thats in the past now & well they are building back starting from now in NZ, Home vs SA, away to IND, WI before the Ashes rematch. England have to start from scratch & build back a winnings mentality within the unit as they did between BANG 2003 to SA 2004/05. Plus have to hope the shocking injury curse that is affecting English sports these days eases & so no more casualties occurs thus talismatic figures in Flintoff & Trescothick are back in 2009 & maybe Simon Jones although its obvious he won't be the same bowler of 2005.

If all goes well this would be England's best XI come 2009 IMO:

Trescothick
Cook
Vaughan
KP
Collingwood
Bell
Flintoff
a solid keeper (i fear the selectors have missed a trick by not Pothas though)
Hoggard
Harmison
Panesar

Other players who will obviously be in the very close to selection are blokes like Sidebottom, Strauss, Shah, Key, Bopara, Tremlett, Broad, Anderson.

They were signs againts India if the conditions are very conductive to any form of swing bowlers as was the case in 05 & 07 vs IND & not flat decks with sunshine conditons of 06 once England could build back a fast bowling attack Australia could have problems.



Australia well are in Ponting era & have some interesting challenges coming up no doubt. Ponting has his first sub-continent challenges in PAK & IND of his era which i feel Australia will lose in India since no spinner in Australia has the ability to win test matches in Australia, even though in Lee, Tait, Bracken & (going for a wild card option here in Gillespie if he shows good form) Australia have some fast-bowlers that can bowl well in India conditions. But given that outside Clarke, Hayden & possibly a recalled Katich Australia batting in Indian conditions is very suspect.

Another overhyped SA series home away @ the end of the year awaits, although seeing how Steyn & Morkel go will be sights the fact that SA batting isn't aggressive good enough to put Australia under much pressure i see another one-sided contest unfortunately.

Other tours of WI & NZ inbetween these two highlighted contests shouldn't cause any real heaches for them, but Australia no doubt will want to keep there winning standards up although clearly losing such great players has dented their aura.

The best Australian XI come 2009 could be:

Hayden
Jaques
Ponting
Hussey
Clarke
Symonds
Haddin
Lee
Johnson
Clark
Tait

Looking at the side firstly i reckon given that i have no faith in the spin talent in Australia ATM, although that change if someone steps up i am hoping by 2009 that 4-man attack will be rolling.

Hayden being there is a question even though i believe he will still playing then in possibly his final series. He did say he is still enjoying it & he certainly looks as if he could play until he's 40 IMHO. But one will have to see what occurs.

If Hayden is not there in 2009 ATS i would be tempted to throw Hussey up the order even though its a risk i like what i see in back-up for middle-order spots with Hodge, a possibly rejuvented Katich these days & David Hussey than with the openers in Rogers, Divenuto & Hughes with the Ashes just over a year away.

Either way i can't wait for this series to get crackin..

 

[Jamee999]

Lee, Johnson, Clark, Tait scares the **** out of me.

 

[Richard]

Johnson and Tait don't scare anything out of me... yet. Nor does Lee... yet. In any case, Tait we have no way whatsoever of having a clue what he might be doing in 2009.

And Clark after his debut 9-for has been consistent but has never run through a side (obviously, often enough that's been due to not having the chance due to the strength of his team-mates) but I'd still be more worried about him than any of Australia's other bowlers as of this moment.

TBH, I'm already very worried that we're running-out of time to have a decent side by 2009. I see us possibly beating New Zealand but possibly not, very possibly losing to South Africa, and then it's obviously just a season away. Basically, we've 1 summer left before the thing, and it's a damn tough one.

I don't see that we can make anything but the assumption that Trescothick won't play Tests again. Like Tait, we really don't know, so it's safer to guess no than guess yes. Strauss' prospects don't convince me either, so right now I guess Key, if he can keep-up his form and Strauss' continues to be poor, is the likely partner for Cook (presuming, obviously, that he himself picks himself out of his recent slump).

Collingwood I don't see offering anything much against Australia (or any Test-standard team) in bowler-friendly conditions with good catching, because he never has yet. So I hope he's gone by then. Who'll be in instead of him is a matter of who's going well.

I seriously, seriously hope Harmison doesn't last another 2 years, we've already seen far too much of him. Hoggard and Sidebottom, if the ball swings properly like it did last summer, is indeed an enticing proposition. Maybe Tremlett to come back in, though equally maybe not. Tremlett, right now, would seem the best bet however. Obviously, with Flintoff we can but hope, but I don't hope terribly high myself.

I greatly fancy our chances of ending Symonds' Test career ingloriously if we bowl and catch well (and get the decisions we should be getting, obv ) as I do think he might last until then, but equally he might not. Any decent attack and slip-cordon should deal with him.

Can only see it being Jaques and Rogers as the openers, Hayden shouldn't last that long though he continues to last longer than he should time and again, and obviously there's no reason not to suspect the three-four-five won't be Ponting, Hussey, Clarke. Don't see Katich getting back in again, sadly, think his time's gone. If it's anyone I'd be happiest with Hodge, but I suppose we couldn't completely rule-out someone like Butterworth or Pomersbach if they keep-up their form of the last 2 seasons. Watson, obviously, is also a decent chance, but his form this season has been awful, not helped by that silly idea of opening.

Either way, as I say, time is running short. Hopefully Haddin won't take long to establish himself.

 

[Woodster]

If all goes well this would be England's best XI come 2009 IMO:

Trescothick
Cook
Vaughan
KP
Collingwood
Bell
Flintoff
a solid keeper (i fear the selectors have missed a trick by not Pothas though)
Hoggard
Harmison
Panesar

Other players who will obviously be in the very close to selection are blokes like Sidebottom, Strauss, Shah, Key, Bopara, Tremlett, Broad, Anderson.

I'm not sure Flintoff, if indeed he is fit, will be exposed to a side with only three other specialist bowlers in it. It would have been a big ask of him when he was fully fit and firing with no obvious injury concerns, while I don't doubt his place in the side, I feel another bowler will need to be included. In place of who ? Well that really does all depend on form/injuries between now and then, the quality of fringe players is quite pleasing however.

 

[Goughy]

Trescothick
Cook
Vaughan
KP
Collingwood
Bell
Flintoff
a solid keeper (i fear the selectors have missed a trick by not Pothas though)
Hoggard
Harmison
Panesar

Cant fault that too much. There are one or 2 selections that could go either way, but thats pretty close to the best available side.

Will not make much difference though. Australia are certainly weaker than in years gone by, but they are still pretty damn good and will be too strong for England.

Despite Australias moderate decline, and England being a decent team (with that line-up), they are still superior.

England to snatch a Test but Australia odds on for the series.

 

[Richard]

I'm amazed anyone's willing to offer serious predictions with a whole 18 months still to go. I mean, would anyone have got much accuracy in their predictions for 2006\07 in September 2005?

 

[Neil Pickup]

Everyone with anything to do with English cricket should be banned from mentioning the A word until at least April 2009.

 

[GIMH]

Anderson?

 

[Richard]

He probably should be banned from playing Tests again, yeah.

 

[aussie]

I'm amazed anyone's willing to offer serious predictions with a whole 18 months still to go. I mean, would anyone have got much accuracy in their predictions for 2006\07 in September 2005?

I would think so, the only surprise selection for Australia IMO after the 2005 Ashes was Clark. For England well selections went haywire solely due to the injury crisis that occured during that time.

We could have another lark type scenario with either Australia & England between now & 2009 but i don't honestly any state/county player from either nation that fits that bill other than the obvious fringe players.

 

[Richard]

I would think so, the only surprise selection for Australia IMO after the 2005 Ashes was Clark. For England well selections went haywire solely due to the injury crisis that occured during that time.

Was meaning result-wise predictions TBH, who's-going-to-play-related predictions are always interesting.

 

[aussie]

Collingwood I don't see offering anything much against Australia (or any Test-standard team) in bowler-friendly conditions with good catching, because he never has yet. So I hope he's gone by then. Who'll be in instead of him is a matter of who's going well.

WTF, Collingwood gone by then have i missed something?. Well as usual with your analysis of certain things i'd love to know why you don't reckon Collingwood would offer much againts test class opposition?.

I seriously, seriously hope Harmison doesn't last another 2 years, we've already seen far too much of him. Hoggard and Sidebottom, if the ball swings properly like it did last summer, is indeed an enticing proposition. Maybe Tremlett to come back in, though equally maybe not. Tremlett, right now, would seem the best bet however. Obviously, with Flintoff we can but hope, but I don't hope terribly high myself.

I know how you feel about the durham destroyer, but i reckon an English bowling attack always looks more threatenign with a firing Harmison than no Harmison. But then again looking at how Harmo bowled in recent Ashes battles i reckon you could right here.

I greatly fancy our chances of ending Symonds' Test career ingloriously if we bowl and catch well (and get the decisions we should be getting, obv ) as I do think he might last until then, but equally he might not. Any decent attack and slip-cordon should deal with him.

I reckon you might be in for a shocker here. Yea Symonds got some luck etc, but if you are going to look down on every batsman who gets runs & is dropped you are going to have to make a long list since good player take advantage of their good fortune.

Can only see it being Jaques and Rogers as the openers, Hayden shouldn't last that long though he continues to last longer than he should time and again, and obviously there's no reason not to suspect the three-four-five won't be Ponting, Hussey, Clarke. Don't see Katich getting back in again, sadly, think his time's gone. If it's anyone I'd be happiest with Hodge, but I suppose we couldn't completely rule-out someone like Butterworth or Pomersbach if they keep-up their form of the last 2 seasons. Watson, obviously, is also a decent chance, but his form this season has been awful, not helped by that silly idea of opening.

With Hayden he just looks so hungry & i see no signs of retirement i just reckon he is one of those players who is just getting better & better with age. ATS i'm 70% sure that Hayden will be here 2009.

Jaques yea should be here, i have my doubts about how far Rogers as a test quality though given what i say of him againts India in Perth maybe a bit harsh given it was really the first time i saw him. But his decline looks that he could get owned againts quality bowling, but i'd be happy to be proven wrong in the future.

Don't see why Katich would be a matter of the past TBH, i reckon him, Hodge & D Hussey will all be banging down the selectors door in coming years. Probably a fit Shane Watson as well..

 

[aussie]

Anderson?

He probably should be banned from playing Tests again, yeah.

I remember some very encouraging performances from Anderson againts India @ home recently where he was the best English bowler on show i thought?. Or am i giving my fellow lancastrian too much credit?

 

[Richard]

Anderson only bowled terribly well in the first-innings at Lord's last home season for mine. First time he'd bowled well since Mumbai in 2005\06, and that was the first time he'd ever bowled well in his entire Test career, except possibly that second-innings at The Oval in 2004, but I was far from convinced there really.

 

[Richard]

WTF, Collingwood gone by then have i missed something?. Well as usual with your analysis of certain things i'd love to know why you don't reckon Collingwood would offer much againts test class opposition?.

Collingwood has only ever scored chanceless runs on impossibly flat pitches (Lahore and Nagpur 2005\06, Adelaide 2006\07, Chester-le-Street 2007). Never scored them against remotely decent attacks on surfaces offering anything to the bowlers.

I know how you feel about the durham destroyer, but i reckon an English bowling attack always looks more threatenign with a firing Harmison than no Harmison. But then again looking at how Harmo bowled in recent Ashes battles i reckon you could right here.

I think Harmison usually makes the attack look far worse with than without. Harmison usually lets any block on the scoring-rate be released, rarely threatens to take wickets, and basically is a weak link. Against any team, not just Australia.

I reckon you might be in for a shocker here. Yea Symonds got some luck etc, but if you are going to look down on every batsman who gets runs & is dropped you are going to have to make a long list since good player take advantage of their good fortune.

But if players need fortune to score, and don't get any fortune, they don't score. I hope that might be the case with Symonds in 2009.

With Hayden he just looks so hungry & i see no signs of retirement i just reckon he is one of those players who is just getting better & better with age. ATS i'm 70% sure that Hayden will be here 2009.

You said that about Gilchrist just a few months ago... and so did a few others...

Jaques yea should be here, i have my doubts about how far Rogers as a test quality though given what i say of him againts India in Perth maybe a bit harsh given it was really the first time i saw him. But his decline looks that he could get owned againts quality bowling, but i'd be happy to be proven wrong in the future.

It's 1 Test, Rogers is a fine batsman. He's unlikely to be any superman, but he could be a decent, solid Test opener for a few years, and is certainly ahead of anyone else at the current time, as I don't see Hussey ever being shifted back to the top of the order where he belongs again.

Don't see why Katich would be a matter of the past TBH, i reckon him, Hodge & D Hussey will all be banging down the selectors door in coming years. Probably a fit Shane Watson as well..

Katich is, what, 32 now? Would be 33 by the time he next might have the chance of getting in, and would surely still be behind Hodge as of this merment? Not sure about Hussey, but he always seems to have enough going against him. Might make a decent Test batsman mind.

 

[aussie]

Anderson only bowled terribly well in the first-innings at Lord's last home season for mine. First time he'd bowled well since Mumbai in 2005\06, and that was the first time he'd ever bowled well in his entire Test career, except possibly that second-innings at The Oval in 2004, but I was far from convinced there really.

Anderson along with a few others has suffered due to the injury crisis that has hit England since the 2005 Ashes. He was on the fringes then, in PAK & after some usual solid ODI performances got his chance in Mumbai & bam. Came home got injured barely played a CC game @ the end of the season & was selected into for the Ashes series very rusty.

He built back well into the series againts India & bowled well on some flat decks, never going to be world beater but definately one of the better bowlers England have ATM once fully fit & firing.

 

[Richard]

I honestly doubt it. I'm finding it less and less likely with every rubbish Test that Anderson will ever become a Test-standard bowler.

 

[Goughy]

I honestly doubt it. I'm finding it less and less likely with every rubbish Test that Anderson will ever become a Test-standard bowler.

Id agree.

He was a young bowler that really got the ball to swing but had accuracy issues due to his head falling and not looking where he was bowling.

A couple of years ago they tried to rectify that problem and the result being he bowls with a little extra gas now but doesnt swing it like he did and still struggles with accuracy as he still drags his head down.

Maybe overly harsh to say the coaches messed him up as there was a legit issue that if corrected would have dramatically improved him as a bowler. However the reality is that the issue is still there, his major bowling weakness (inaccuracy and dragging it short) still exists but his main weapon (dramatic outswing) has all but disappeared.

He isnt the same bowler he was before. He needs time in County cricket. Not to just regain confidence, but to try and work out how best to bowl with the method he currently has.

 

[Burgey]

Bollinger will be in the Aussie Ashes squad next year, barring injury or complete loss of form.

He's more likely to be in the side than Tait imo, given Tait's recent trevails.

I also wouldn't discount a return by Watson to the squad at least, depending on how Symonds copes with the subcontinent in the mean time, and also the express stuff from Steyn. Were he fit (big question mark) and firing (we don't know if he can fire yet, owing to injuries), he could play at 6, allowing the side to play 3 quicks plus say, McGill or even Warnie out of retirement as the spinner.

My XI if fit and firing:

Hayden
Jaques
Ponting
Hussey
Clarke
Watson/ Symonds
Haddin
Lee
Johnson
Clark
MacGill or McGain/ Bollinger.

In the event Symonds plays, he would be the "spinner", with 4 quicks, the last one being Bollinger. If Watson plays, MacGill or McGain comes in, because Australia must, since the days of McDermott, have at least one bowler with "Mc" in his name, or so it seems.

A few pro-Aussie x factors imo:

1. S Clark in English conditions should make the ball talk.
2. I would hope and expect that the same bowling coach who got the England bowlers to get the ball reversing in 05 can do it for the Aussies in 09.
3. Some of the less experienced players in the squad will, assuming all goes well for them, have had 20 tests or more worth of experience by then (the likes of Johnson, Haddin, Jaques spring to mind)
4. A lot of our blokes have played in England at the County level, so the conditions shouldn't come as too much of a surprise to them.
5. Lee needs to maintain his current form and fitness, as the most experienced quick in the side.

Having said all that, I think it will be a pretty competitive series, certainly more so than 06/07 (but hten, that wouldn't be hard, would it? ).

 

[Richard]

If the conditions in 2009 are like 2007 rather than 2005, I'd imagine we'll get lots of conventional swing and not that much reverse.

And if MacGill or McGain play, I'll be licking my lips and so I'd imagine will Cook, Pietersen et al. Bollinger would worry me more, and right now a one-season wonder doesn't overtly worry me.