I think you've summed up my feelings pretty well here Steve. It's not so much his performances, but the platform he's had for those performances.
Let's look at Nicholls test career:
- Debuts vs Australia as an injury replacement for Ross Taylor and bats at 4. Scores 59 on debut (2nd innings). Scores 8, 7 and 2 in the other 3 innings.
- Tours Zimbabwe and South Africa and bats at number 5 after McCullum's retirement. Scores 18, 15, 36 and 76.
- Is included in squad for tour of India. Averaging 27.62 after 6 tests, is second choice to Luke Ronchi for number 5 after Ronchi fires in the pre-series warm up and Nicholls fails. End of 'first part' of Nicholls career.
- Williamson is out injured for the second test. Nicholls is brought in as injury replace, batting at 3 with scores of 1 and 24, before Williamson returns in Test #3 (test average 24.60).
- Despite being the leading run scorer and playing as a specialist bat on the overall poor tour of India, Luke Ronchi is dropped and Nicholls is picked for the Pakistan series (Ronchi's test average at this point was 39.87, and never played a test again). One assumes Nicholls was seen as 'the future' at this stage - I can't seem to find anything about what was up with Ronchi and can't remember if he was injured in the Plunket Shield leading up to the first test vs Pakistan but he didn't feature, while Nicholls had scores of 6, 6, 33, 98, 0, 15 - he'd finish the PS season with 263 runs @ 37.57, while Ronchi scored 224 @ 37.33. This marks the start of Nicholls second and current career part.
- Plays the Pakistan tests and scores 30, 0*, 13, 26
- Is retained for the series vs Bangladesh, starting with an average of 24.60 after 9 tests. Scores 53, 4*, 98 and DNB. Start of Nicholls first purple patch (average is 31.33 at end of series, 11 tests total)
- Retained for South Africa series, scoring 12, (DNB), 118, 7, 0, (DNB). Finishes series with career average of 31.94
- Scores 67, (DNB), 13, 5. Career average 31.45 after 16 tests
- Retained for the England series, and scores an excellent 145* in the pink ball day-nighter. Scores 0 and 13 in the second test. Average is 35.41 after 18
- Retained for Pakistan series. Scores 28, 55, 0, 77, 1, 126*. Is pivotal in NZ series win and is 3rd highest run scorer behind Williamson and Ali. Finishes series with average of 39.20 and is well and truly established at number 5 after 21 tests
- Retained for Sri Lankas tour of NZ (Will Young's maiden test squad call up). Scores 50, (DNB), 1 and 162*. Average after 23 tests is 43.84.
- Retained for Bangladesh's tour of NZ. Scores 53, (DNB), 107, (DNB) with the final test not played due to Christchurch shooting (Will Young was set to debut as injury replacement for Williamson). Nicholls average reaches it's zenith of 45.75 after 25 tests.
- If we start Nicholls purple patch with his 98 vs Bangladesh and end it with his 107 vs Bangladesh here, his record for the period is excellent: 15 tests, 1138 runs @ 59.89 with 5 centuries and 6 half centuries.
- It is worth noting of the 15 tests, 12 are at home, and the other 3 are in the UAE (neutral). Nicholls will not pass 50 in the next 9 test matches he plays
- Tours Sri Lanka & plays at home vs England. Scores a couple of 40s across 4 tests as notable innings.
- Plays 4 innings in Australia scoring 7, 21, 0 and 33. Misses out on the 3rd test in tour of Australia due to stomach illness, replaced by Glenn Phillips who scores 52 and 0.
- Retained for India tour of NZ. Scores are 17, DNB, 14 and 5*
- Retained for West Indies tour of NZ (it is now December 2020). Scores 7 as NZ win by an innings. At this stage his average has dropped from 45 to 38.97. Will Young makes his debut, as opener, in this test scoring 5.
- Scores 174 in the second test as NZ win by an innings. This ends his poor run of 9 tests, 13 innings, 244 runs @ 20.33.
- Retained for home series vs Pakistan. Scores 56, 11 and 157. Average reaches second zenith of 43.91 after 37 tests (55 innings).
- Retained for tour of England & WTC final. Scores 61 in his first dig vs England, followed by scores of 23 and 21 (v England) and 7 (vs India).
- Starting from that second test vs West Indies and ending with 1st test vs England, Nicholls scores 482 runs @ 80.33. (2 centuries, 2 fifties, 4 tests, 6 innings)
- Nicholls misses a test on the 2021 tour of England due to a calf injury, but otherwise plays all tests up until the present day. Between the second test vs England in 2021 and the first test vs Sri Lanka in 2023, Nicholls plays 15 tests and scores 512 runs @ 20.48 with 1 century and 1 fifty in 25 innings. Before the second test, Nicholls test average of 36.15 was the lowest it had been since 2018 when his good run of form started.
In summation, Nicholls was brought in as injury cover vs Aus. McCullum retires and he's given the number 5 role and doesn't set the world on fire despite a couple of gritty fifties, and is no longer a first choice player come the tour of India. On that tour he replaces Williamson for one test, batting out of position at 3, and doesn't do anything to scream 'pick me'. And yet, the number 5 for that series, Luke Ronchi, is dropped for the next series (despite being the leading NZ run scorer in India) and Nicholls is recalled despite averaging 25 at this stage. Scores a good hundred vs South Africa at home but doesn't really kick off until his 145* vs England (average of 31.45 after 16 tests before that).
It just seems like he's given extraordinarily long rope. He's somewhat ironically dropped when he shouldn't have (after 76 vs SA away) and then recalled despite not really warranting it (Ronchi's dropping). He then gets an uninterrupted run from there on out, barring a couple of injures/illness. For my mind, he didn't really take his chance until test number 13 - which is where things get interesting, because that's the same number of test matches Will Young has played. So on that rationale, you could say Young has had enough chances. And yet, when you compare how the two have been given their chances, they're hardly equitable. Nicholls got 2 tests before McCullum retired and there was literally an open spot in the line up for him to slot into. He briefly lost that spot to Ronchi, who himself was dropped and Nicholls recalled. Now, hopefully someone will enlighten me with a simple as to why this happened. Ronchi was injured, or something, but looking back at Cricinfo articles Larsen simply states that Ronchi "misses out this time" but is still in consideration if he knocks the door down.
In the 59 tests played from Nicholls debut, he plays 54 of them. Misses 2 to injury/illness, 2 to not being preferred (India tour) and 1 to terrorist attack (so apparently this counts in the records). Plays most of his tests at 5. Bats out of position at 3 once as injury cover. IMHO, batting 4 replaying Ross Taylor as injury cover and then later when he retires is less out of position than batting 3 or opening.
Let's look at Will Young's chances so far by comparison, as well as the makeup of the batting lineup in a shifting environment.
- Debuts vs the West Indies as an opener, replacing Tom Blundell who drops down the order to replace an injured BJ Watling. Young scores 5 in his only dig as NZ win by an innings.
- BJ Watling returns in the second test, and Blundell returns to open. Williamson is out due to birth of his first child, so Young replaces him at number 3 for the second test. Young makes 43 in his only dig as NZ win by an innings.
- With Williamson's return, Young does not play in the tests vs Pakistan at home
- Young makes squad for tour of England and WTC final. Blundell is dropped, and Conway debuts as opener. Williamson misses a test due to elbow injury and Young bats 3, scoring 82 and 8. Williamson returns for the WTC final and Young doesn't play.
- Young tours India and opens in place of the injured Devon Conway, with Blundell now the incumbent wicket keeper and no longer opener. Scores 89, 2, 4, 20. At the end of series and 5 tests, is averaging 31.62.
- Young is retained for home series for Bangladesh. Williamson is out injured, so Conway slots in at number 3, meaning no 'clash' in what was Conway's position for his first 3 tests. Young crosses fifty in all 3 innings batted, with scores of 52, 69 and 54. His average reaches it's career height of 38.90 after 7 tests in his off/on career so far. By comparison, Nicholls averaged 24.60 after 7 tests.
- Williamson misses the South Africa series, and Taylor is now retired. Nicholls moves up to number 4. Conway bats 3 again and Young opens. Young does not fare well and scores 8, 3 and 0 from the 3 chances he gets. Average drops to 31.35.
- Young is retained for the three match tour of England. Fares poorly in the first test, scoring 1 and 1. Nicholls was out injured in this test, and Devon Conway batted at 4. It seems at this stage the team definitely views Young as the preferred opener and Conway as a middle order bat. This is Young's 10th Test, at which point he's averaging 27.56. After Nicholls first 10, he averaged 26.57.
- Young fares better in the second test, scoring 47 and 56. Williamson is out injured, so Conway bats 3 and Nicholls comes back in at 4. Young's average jumps back above 30 for the last time to 30.22. He doesn't fare as well in the 3rd and final test, scoring 20 and 8. His returns for the series are 133 runs at 22.16, marginally better than his opening partner Tom Latham (121 @ 20.16). Nicholls scores 59 @ 14.75, albeit in one less test.
- The period between Young's last 50 vs Bangladesh and 50 vs England in the 2nd test is 3 tests/5 innings, the longest Young goes without passing 50 in his career to date.
- Young is retained for the squad to tour Pakistan. While NZ played 6 batsmen (if we say Mitchell is a batsman and not an all-rounder) in the final test v England, they opt for 5 batsmen vs Pakistan with Young being dropped. Conway moves up to open while Nicholls moves up to 4, and Mitchell to 5. This balance is repeated in the second test.
- Young does not play the first test vs England, but is called in to bolster the batting in the second test and for the first time ever, bats in his preferred spot of number 4. He doesn't fare well, scoring 2 and 8, and is subsequently dropped for the series vs Sri Lanka
- After 13 tests, Young's average is 26.45. By comparison at the same stage, Nicholls was 33.72 and was about to hit his first good run of scores.
So what can we conclude from this? I feel like Nicholls had a better run of fortune in the time he was brought into the test team. His initial stint as an injury replacement was followed immediately by being given the vacant position at 5 when McCullum retired, and had a 6 match uninterrupted streak to stake his claim. This yielded 221 runs at 27.62, but then seemingly dropped for the tour of India. Young's first 6 yielded 374 @ 37.40. However, this was an interrupted run. Young's longest stretch is 9 matches, starting with opening the batting in India and ending with the final test of the tour of England. In this 9 match run he scored 434 runs at 27.12 with 5 centuries. So we can say, he failed to take his chances
as an opener, and was rightly dropped from that position. And yet he returns, for 1 solitary test - not as injury cover either - and is dropped after he doesn't perform.
After Nicholls was dropped for the tour of India early in his career, his 9 match stint (using the same metric) following his recall yielded 446 runs at 37.16. Key differences between the runs of these two batsmen is that:
- Nicholls got his run at his preferred position
- Nicholls played all of those 9 tests at home
- Young was opening, not his preferred position, and not an easy job
- Young played 4 at home, and 5 away in his 9 test stretch
None of this is Nicholls fault, of course. He's not a selector, and he's not going to drop himself. But I can't help but feel they've both been treated fairly differently in the chances they've got. Young hasn't missed any of his chances to injury, so if we look at how their careers have played out:
Nicholls debuts and plays:
- 6 tests
- 1 test as injury cover
- 48 tests (misses a few due to injury)
Young on the other hand:
- 2 tests
- 1 test
- 9 tests
- 1 test
Another contributing factor is the changing makeup of the side. For the most part, the side has looked something like
opener
opener
middle order bat
middle order bat
middle order bat
all-rounder
wicketkeeper
bowler
bowler
bowler
bowler
With the retirement of McCullum and Taylor, you'd think the natural fit is Nicholls and Young. For one test the make up is that (2nd test vs England this year).
Mitchell's replacement of de Grandhomme as all-rounder initially has morphed into him being a batsman, and M Bracewell now essentially playing de Grandhomme's role. This means Mitchell has taken his chance and forged a career for himself, whereas Young didn't - in the role of opener.
So various things. Team make up, injuries, and form in an unfamiliar position. Young should get a decent run, but I'm not sure how that's going to happen unless Nicholls is dropped, Mitchell greatly loses form, or they go back to Mitchell as the "all-rounder" at 6 or 7.
