Can Tim Southee pass Sir Richard?

[Days of Grace]

After the time of posting, Tim Southee has taken 359 wickets in 92 matches. He is 2 behind Daniel Vettori (361) and 72 behind Sir Richard Hadlee (431).

If he takes 4 wickets per test (his career rate is 3.90) then he will need 18 more tests to equal Hadlee. It is not inconceivable for him to take 4 wickets a match because, like Hadlee, he will be the senior bowler who will be increasingly relied upon as more fresh faces are brought in (After Stead is shown the door, but that is another discussion).

The main factors are time and motivation. Southee is 34. I'm not sure exactly what New Zealand's future test schedule looks like but those 18 tests may be played over the next three to four years. If he stays injury free and remains up for it, he will probably be 37 to 38 by the time he gets there.

He has been relatively injury free his entire career.

Will he do it?

 

[Athlai]

18 Tests feels like it'd take forever on our current schedule

 

[Bahnz]

NZ’s test schedule for the next 3 years
2 v Sri Lanka
2v Bangladesh
2 v SA
2 v Australia
2 v SL
1 v Afghanistan (will probably be canned for t20’s)
3 v India (maybe…could easily see the third test being replaced with a T20 series)
3 v England
2 v Zim
2 v WI

So assuming he has a near perfect fitness record, he’d probably need to play until 2026 to get there.

I’m gonna say he’ll call it quits after the 2025 England series with around 400ish wickets.

 

[Days of Grace]

If he is over 400 wickets by the end of the 2025 England series then 4 matches against Zimbabwe and West Indies will be tough to turn down. I don't get the sense that Timmeh is that motivated by records though.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

No.

Although, if Stead remains in charge, he has a chance of breaking Murali's record because he'll be playing deep into his dotage.

 

[Flem274*]

He doesn't strike me as a stats guy. He'll hang the boots up when he cbf, so it may even be a bit random. I thought Boult might chase down the 431 due to those TV ads lol.

If you'd offered up 350 test wickets at a solid average in 2008 I'd have bitten your arm off. He's already a huge asset.

 

[ataraxia]

NZ’s test schedule for the next 3 years
2 v Sri Lanka
2v Bangladesh
2 v SA
2 v Australia
2 v SL
1 v Afghanistan (will probably be canned for t20’s)
3 v India (maybe…could easily see the third test being replaced with a T20 series)
3 v England
2 v Zim
2 v WI

So assuming he has a near perfect fitness record, he’d probably need to play until 2026 to get there.

I’m gonna say he’ll call it quits after the 2025 England series with around 400ish wickets.

So much for the 9 tests a year we were promised by White.

 

[Bahnz]

They could always schedule in some non-FTP series tests like this series v England. But looking at the schedule I doubt it. With a new tin-pot white ball tournament being played every year, we’re in store for diet heavy in jam in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons.

 

[Zinzan]

It'd feel a bit of a travesty of justice if he did.

 

[Bahnz]

It'd feel a bit of a travesty of justice if he did.

Why? Going past on aggregate is no reflection on their relative abilities. Do you think it’s a travesty that James Anderson has more wickets than Glenn McGrath?

 

[Zinzan]

Why? Going past on aggregate is no reflection on their relative abilities.

'Bit of a travesty' meaning it'd irk me slightly. I wouldn't die in a ditch over it.

 

[The Hutt Rec]

Records are made to be broken, I hope he does it ... hope he goes on a wicket taking spree and gets to 500!

 

[NZTailender]

It's a big effort but he may achieve it with a lot of fibre in his diet

 

[mr_mister]

#betterthanHadlee

 

[bagapath]

Why? Going past on aggregate is no reflection on their relative abilities. Do you think it’s a travesty that James Anderson has more wickets than Glenn McGrath?

not really. actually i am quite happy Jimmy has more wickets than ambrose and garner combined. at least now atheists don't ask why there is smallpox and polio and cancer if there is a god.

 

[Days of Grace]

61 behind now.

 

[SteveNZ]

#betterthanHadlee

There's only one man with SIR431 on his number plate, and it ain't Timmy.

 

[SteveNZ]

Will Tim get there? I reckon he will. He won't want to take on the Test captaincy for a year then relinquish it, so you'd back him in to play for 2-3 more years, in which at current strike rate he'd get there. And good luck to him - it doesn't mean he's better than Sir Richard, but it certainly speaks to his longevity and the fact he's done wonderfully well to get to where he is, from a point in the late 09s and 10s where he could hardly even get to the crease and averaged over 40.

 

[Jezroy]

Yeah… I reckon he only needs 16-20 more tests to get there now. He SHOULD beat Hadlee bar injuries.

To have Kane and Timmeh play so many tests together, plus with Boult having played a lot of those (as well as the other comparatively ATVG or better players for NZ we’ve had in that time - Watling, BMac, Wagner, Taylor, Latham, CDG, KJ, etc etc), you can see why we’ve done pretty well over the last decade.

Hopefully the likes of late Kane and Tim, Latham, Conway, Mitchell, Blundell, Henry, can keep carrying us forward.

#needspin

 

[Athlai]

He's bowling great