TimAngas
State Vice-Captain
At last the time has come. This is the test series that has occupied my mind most since Australia retained the Ashes in 2019. The 2017 series was one of the most thrilling series I've ever seen, and I can only hope for a similar contest this time around. The three most recent BG-series have been ultra competitive. So given my excitement, please indulge this wall of text.
On paper, disregarding conditions, Australia looks a better team than we did in 2017. We are in great form. But in Indian conditions there are some caveats:
Despite our success in Pakistan, the surfaces in India are going to be much more lively, and there is a big question mark over the second spinner, with the selectors pulled in a number of directions. The heart says to go with the wrist-spinner Swepson as an attacking option, but the success visiting left-armers with quicker, flatter trajectory (Steve O'Keefe, Panesar) mean that Agar is the frame, despite a middling record of late. Holland isn't in performing well enough and doesn't bat while Kuhnemann is maybe too raw. Todd Murphy looks to also have a flatter trajectory (as he's taller maybe he doesn't need to flight the ball as much?), but then doesn't provide the leg-spinning variation. My feeling is that Australia should pick for the conditions. On insane bunsens they should go with Agar, but Swepson might be a better option on a Karun Nair road.
In 2017 we had Renshaw and Handscomb, both who are natural players of spin. Renshaw performed really well on the two most spinning wickets in the first two tests. I would have said it was worth having Renshaw as an option to replace Warner if he performed poorly, but Warner has probably made himself undroppable until the Ashes. Nonetheless Travis Head doesn't seem to have a coherent plan against spin yet and so Renshaw could potentially slot in for him if Head is made to look totally at sea in the first few tests.
Mitchell Starc's injury causes a few problems for Australia. On a flat wicket Starc and Cummins would have been the two pacers I would have picked. Starc has the extra advantage of creating rough outside the right-handers off stump and India might have a top order with just right-handers: (Rahul/Gill/Rohit, Pujara, Kohli, Iyer). I would include Joel Paris in the squad if Starc is ruled out for the whole tour. I don't think the selectors will leapfrog Neser, Boland and Morris though. It might be in the selectors minds that Morris' extra pace will give us something to work with on docile wickets.
India's batting doesn't look strong at the moment. Pujara and Kohli average 23 and 26 respectively since the start of 2020 at home. Including away matches it is clear this is not a short form slump. Rohit Sharma has been great in tests through 2021 but might just be sputtering out based on the two tests he played in 2022 and middling ODI form. Iyer is in great touch and will prosper on roads. I don't forget the time he scored a run-a-ball double century against Australia in the 2017 tour match. We will bounce him no matter what. Pant may not play
.
A lot will depend on what pitches India roll out. I think roads may actually favour Australia because (bold prediction) I can't see Pujara, Kohli, making big daddy hundreds like they might have in the past, and even then, Australia, for the first time in a while, have proven form in building an innings on a flatter wicket in Asia. On the other hand a wicket taking extreme spin, a Kohli 45(60) with wickets falling all around could be a match-winning contribution.
This is the first time going into an India tour where I've felt Australia have more than a slim chance of winning.
Prediction: 2-1 Australia
----
fixtures (added by mod 30 January)
1st Test, Nagpur, Thursday 9th - Monday 13th February
2nd Test, Delhi, Friday 17th - Tuesday 21st February
3rd Test, Dharamshala, Wednesday 1st - Sunday 5th March
4th Test, Ahmadabad, Thursday 9th - Monday 13th March
1st ODI, Mumbai, Friday 17th March
2nd ODI, Visakhapatnam, Sunday 19th March
3rd ODI, Chennai, Wednesday 22nd March
all ODIs day/night start 13.30 local
On paper, disregarding conditions, Australia looks a better team than we did in 2017. We are in great form. But in Indian conditions there are some caveats:
Despite our success in Pakistan, the surfaces in India are going to be much more lively, and there is a big question mark over the second spinner, with the selectors pulled in a number of directions. The heart says to go with the wrist-spinner Swepson as an attacking option, but the success visiting left-armers with quicker, flatter trajectory (Steve O'Keefe, Panesar) mean that Agar is the frame, despite a middling record of late. Holland isn't in performing well enough and doesn't bat while Kuhnemann is maybe too raw. Todd Murphy looks to also have a flatter trajectory (as he's taller maybe he doesn't need to flight the ball as much?), but then doesn't provide the leg-spinning variation. My feeling is that Australia should pick for the conditions. On insane bunsens they should go with Agar, but Swepson might be a better option on a Karun Nair road.
In 2017 we had Renshaw and Handscomb, both who are natural players of spin. Renshaw performed really well on the two most spinning wickets in the first two tests. I would have said it was worth having Renshaw as an option to replace Warner if he performed poorly, but Warner has probably made himself undroppable until the Ashes. Nonetheless Travis Head doesn't seem to have a coherent plan against spin yet and so Renshaw could potentially slot in for him if Head is made to look totally at sea in the first few tests.
Mitchell Starc's injury causes a few problems for Australia. On a flat wicket Starc and Cummins would have been the two pacers I would have picked. Starc has the extra advantage of creating rough outside the right-handers off stump and India might have a top order with just right-handers: (Rahul/Gill/Rohit, Pujara, Kohli, Iyer). I would include Joel Paris in the squad if Starc is ruled out for the whole tour. I don't think the selectors will leapfrog Neser, Boland and Morris though. It might be in the selectors minds that Morris' extra pace will give us something to work with on docile wickets.
India's batting doesn't look strong at the moment. Pujara and Kohli average 23 and 26 respectively since the start of 2020 at home. Including away matches it is clear this is not a short form slump. Rohit Sharma has been great in tests through 2021 but might just be sputtering out based on the two tests he played in 2022 and middling ODI form. Iyer is in great touch and will prosper on roads. I don't forget the time he scored a run-a-ball double century against Australia in the 2017 tour match. We will bounce him no matter what. Pant may not play
.A lot will depend on what pitches India roll out. I think roads may actually favour Australia because (bold prediction) I can't see Pujara, Kohli, making big daddy hundreds like they might have in the past, and even then, Australia, for the first time in a while, have proven form in building an innings on a flatter wicket in Asia. On the other hand a wicket taking extreme spin, a Kohli 45(60) with wickets falling all around could be a match-winning contribution.
This is the first time going into an India tour where I've felt Australia have more than a slim chance of winning.
Prediction: 2-1 Australia
----
fixtures (added by mod 30 January)
1st Test, Nagpur, Thursday 9th - Monday 13th February
2nd Test, Delhi, Friday 17th - Tuesday 21st February
3rd Test, Dharamshala, Wednesday 1st - Sunday 5th March
4th Test, Ahmadabad, Thursday 9th - Monday 13th March
1st ODI, Mumbai, Friday 17th March
2nd ODI, Visakhapatnam, Sunday 19th March
3rd ODI, Chennai, Wednesday 22nd March
all ODIs day/night start 13.30 local
Last edited by a moderator:
