Curtly Ambrose vs Dale Steyn

[OverratedSanity]

Despite the very significant rise in overall averages, many of the great bowlers who played a large number of matches in both the 90s and 00s (McGrath, Murali, Warne, Ambrose included) have better averages in the latter decade, which strongly contradicts the higher standard of batting + improvement in pitches argument in favour of the general consensus that the standard of new bowlers declined significantly in comparison to the 1990s.

McGrath is the only applicable example. Ambrose barely played a year in the decade and the pitches didn't get flat overnight. If they did get significantly flatter it was a gradual process.

Pitches getting flatter (for the pacers) and drier required spinners to bowl longer spells and brought them into the game more, not surprised their averages got better tbh.

 

[Flem274*]

If the pool of potential ATG bowlers remained constant and the increase in averages in the 2000s was due to a combination of improved batting and improved pitches, rather than a decline in the general standard of bowling, you would expect the averages of the great 90s bowlers to increase in the 2000s as they passed their peak and came up against less favourable conditions. However, this is the opposite of what actually happened. Despite the very significant rise in overall averages, many of the great bowlers who played a large number of matches in both the 90s and 00s (McGrath, Murali, Warne, Ambrose, Walsh included) have better averages in the latter decade, which strongly contradicts the higher standard of batting + improvement in pitches argument in favour of the general consensus that the standard of new bowlers declined significantly in comparison to the 1990s.

McGrath, Pollock, Murali and Warne played about half their careers in the 2000s. Hardly past their peaks. Warne and Murali were spinners, and I'm discussing quicks. I've already said spin was the global solution to the challenges of the 2000s.

What is the mechanism behind this sudden, global and dramatic decline in pace bowlers?

 

[Xix2565]

What is the mechanism behind this sudden, global and dramatic decline in pace bowlers?

A collective brainfade.

 

[Starfighter]

What is the mechanism behind this sudden, global and dramatic decline in pace bowlers?

What happened in the domestic games of various countries? The quicks don't suddenly emerge in the test arena. I don't see how it's deniable that there were far fewer quality fast bowlers entering into the international game for the early 00s than ten years prior.

 

[subshakerz]

McGrath, Pollock, Murali and Warne played about half their careers in the 2000s. Hardly past their peaks. Warne and Murali were spinners, and I'm discussing quicks. I've already said spin was the global solution to the challenges of the 2000s.

What is the mechanism behind this sudden, global and dramatic decline in pace bowlers?

I disagree with your premise that because there were so many ATGs in the 80s and 90s, therefore it will continue that way indefinitely. The decline of pace bowlers has more to do with institutional decline in WI and Pakistan.

There were four great ATG pace factories in cricket, WI, SA, Australia and Pakistan. Since the 2000s, out of the four, only Australia and SA are really capable of producing at least one ATG-level pacer a decade because their systems are better.

Pakistan's pace factory was almost completely a product of Imran Khan transforming himself and then personally picking and grooming Wasim/Waqar with the temperament/fitness regime to have long careers, which was essential. Since then, any potential ATG prospect, basically Akthar, Asif, Aamir and Abbas, has suffered from lack of mentorship and institutional support which is a must if you expect them to have long careers in Pakistan. Let's see how Shaheen does.

Since Ambrose/Walsh's retirement and before, their entire cricket structure has been in perpetual decline for a variety of factors. WI were known for also producing an ATG batsmen every generation which has also stopped.

Just blaming flat pitches for less ATGs is reductionist and masks the real problems.

 

[Flem274*]

What happened in the domestic games of various countries? The quicks don't suddenly emerge in the test arena. I don't see how it's deniable that there were far fewer quality fast bowlers entering into the international game for the early 00s than ten years prior.

You tell me. I'm not the one advocating your position.

You need to present the human driven counter to my environment driven hypothesis. I'm not doing it for you.

 

[TheJediBrah]

You tell me. I'm not the one advocating your position.

You need to present the human driven counter to my environment driven hypothesis. I'm not doing it for you.

There's so many possible explanations all the way from grass roots to international, coaching, conditions, culture etc.

You can't just ask "what's the reason" and sit back smugly when random guy #58 on a cricket forum can't tell you the exact answer

As starfighter said, that there was a decline in fast bowling talent is not in doubt. The real question is why and it's not something that has an easy answer, as far as I know

 

[Flem274*]

There's so many possible explanations all the way from grass roots to international, coaching, conditions, culture etc.

You can't just ask "what's the reason" and sit back smugly when random guy #58 on a cricket forum can't tell you the exact answer

Yes I can.

I've given my reason. People disagree and that's fine, but if the response stops at 'oh nah you're wrong. Bowlers got worse and I don't need to prove it' then that's not chat that's just 'back in the good old days' sooking.

 

[subshakerz]

There hasn't been a pace decline in SA and Australia. After Pollock, SA produced Steyn, Philander and Rabada, while after McGrath, Australia produced Cummins, Harris and Hazelwood who were all worldclass.

The worldclass pace decline has been in WI and Pakistan for reasons that have less to do with pitches and more with their institutions.

 

[TheJediBrah]

Yes I can.

I've given my reason. People disagree and that's fine, but if the response stops at 'oh nah you're wrong. Bowlers got worse and I don't need to prove it' then that's not chat that's just 'back in the good old days' sooking.

Think I misunderstood you, thought you were asking "why did bowlers get worse" not "what are the reasons that make you think bowlers got worse".

The latter is a reasonable question. For me it's just the eye test. As we went through yesterday, other than Steyn there's not a single consistently playing fast bowler that emerged in the 2000s as good as the top 6 fast bowlers (probably even top 10) of the 90s. Similar with fast bowling all the way down the spectrum. Not sure how you would expect me to prove that though so we'll just chalk that one up to a differing of opinion.

 

[TheJediBrah]

There hasn't been a pace decline in SA and Australia. After Pollock, SA produced Steyn, Philander and Rabada, while after McGrath, Australia produced Cummins, Harris and Hazelwood who were all worldclass.

The worldclass pace decline has been in WI and Pakistan for reasons that have less to do with pitches and more with their institutions.

Probably true, but tbf Aus had a brief, but pretty shocking, decline in quality in the late 00s. Hilfenhaus, Bollinger, Johnson (bad version) was the pace attack for a few years there, with Siddle probably the best of the lot.

 

[OverratedSanity]

There hasn't been a pace decline in SA and Australia. After Pollock, SA produced Steyn, Philander and Rabada, while after McGrath, Australia produced Cummins, Harris and Hazelwood who were all worldclass.

The worldclass pace decline has been in WI and Pakistan for reasons that have less to do with pitches and more with their institutions.

All of those bar Steyn debuted in the 2010s.

SA had a period before Steyn hit his peak when their pace attack wasn't that great. Nel ntini etc were fine but hardly world beaters. Australia had a relative dry spell where Lee, Siddle, Bollinger etc were their main bowlers. Again all decent but nowhere close to atg level.

 

[subshakerz]

Probably true, but tbf Aus had a brief, but pretty shocking, decline in quality in the late 00s. Hilfenhaus, Bollinger, Johnson (bad version) was the pace attack for a few years there, with Siddle probably the best of the lot.

True, Lee looked worldclass for a time in 2008 but he and Clarke also dropped off quickly.

But if you look at the wide lens, McGrath retired in 2007 and then by 2010/11 you had two worldclass bowlers debut in Cummins and Harris. That is pretty solid counter to the notion that ATGs had suddenly stopped due to poor pitches.

.

 

[subshakerz]

All of those bar Steyn debuted in the 2010s.

SA had a period before Steyn hit his peak when their pace attack wasn't that great. Nel ntini etc were fine but hardly world beaters. Australia had a relative dry spell where Lee, Siddle, Bollinger etc were their main bowlers. Again all decent but nowhere close to atg level.

Yeah but 2-3 year gaps between birthing worldclass bowlers doesn't prove much of a decline. SA's assembly line was still fairly strong.

When it comes to ATG bowlers, any team is lucky to produce one once a decade. Australia and SA continued to do that regardless of all this flat pitch talk.

Australia had to wait 10 years after Lillee retired for McGrath to rise but nobody would suggest that was due to tough pitches in Australia.

You are ignoring the main point, which is the decline in ATG pacers in more due to internal factors in WI and Pak cricket.

 

[Coronis]

The issues with the Windies domestically have already been discussed and Pakistan did still produce some great bowlers but due to injuries, doping and matchfixing issues they never had fully blossomed careers. Harris should have been playing for Australia earlier but he didn’t increase his strength and fitness to allow him to bowl at a fast pace until very late in his career.

 

[TheJediBrah]

True, Lee looked worldclass for a time in 2008 but he and Clarke also dropped off quickly.

But if you look at the wide lens, McGrath retired in 2007 and then by 2010/11 you had two worldclass bowlers debut in Cummins and Harris. That is pretty solid counter to the notion that ATGs had suddenly stopped due to poor pitches.

Not really given that Cummins played 1 Test and then took an 8 year break, and Harris was injured most of the time as well

We also had Pattinson who was, again, injured almost all the time

 

[Starfighter]

You tell me. I'm not the one advocating your position.

You need to present the human driven counter to my environment driven hypothesis. I'm not doing it for you.

Th problem with the environmentally driven hypothesis is that it has the events in the wrong order. Flat test pitches cannot cause a decline in fast bowling when the new bowlers are not the same quality before they even set foot on those pitches.

This is not a hard idea to understand btw.

 

[subshakerz]

Not really given that Cummins played 1 Test and then took an 8 year break, and Harris was injured most of the time as well

We also had Pattinson who was, again, injured almost all the time

Yes but the original argument is that Steyn deserves extra credit for being the only ATG in a tough bowling era.

Whereas the truth is that the countries that traditionally produced ATGs, WI and Pakistan, stopped for non-pitch reasons while Australias potential ATGs were battling injuries.

 

[subshakerz]

Pakistan and WI havent had an ATG level bowler on the field in 20 years. In fact, I dont think a single pacer has taken even 250 wickets in that time. That is not pitches, it is something deeper. The bowlers who have come have either not been good enough or just dont last.

 

[ankitj]

Pakistan and WI havent had an ATG level bowler on the field in 20 years. In fact, I dont think a single pacer has taken even 250 wickets in that time.

Kemar Roach is reaching there.