***Official*** English Football Season 2020-21

[Furball]

Seems to be the in thing this summer with Juventus wanting to get Allegri back as well.

 

[sledger]

Was going to post about this.

You can see it even surprised the ref because he has to double check he's heard Fernandes correctly.

Kicking first in a shootout is such a massive advantage, I have no idea why they would pass up on that.

Where to people stand on penalty taker order? Pundits seem to like to go on about how it's important to have your best pen taker go first, but I've always instintictively thought they should probably take second for some reason.

 

[GIMH]

How can you all carry on as normal when Vaughan has retired?

Oh it was fun scoring goals. Bleurgh

 

[Uppercut]

Where to people stand on penalty taker order? Pundits seem to like to go on about how it's important to have your best pen taker go first, but I've always instintictively thought they should probably take second for some reason.

The pundit reasoning is based on the fallacy that you're giving up an edge if there's a chance that the shoot-out will be over before your best taker takes one. I've never given much thought to what the best order actually is though. Taking the lead in the shoot out might be worth something psychologically, but OTOH you might prefer your best takers on the penalties with the most pressure.

 

[Furball]

Where to people stand on penalty taker order? Pundits seem to like to go on about how it's important to have your best pen taker go first, but I've always instintictively thought they should probably take second for some reason.

I think 2nd would probably be my last choice. First makes sense because you get off to a strong start. 5th makes sense to finish strongly, but you run the risk that 5th place doesn't get a penalty (seem to remember Portugal losing a penalty shootout with Ronaldo not taking one). I think 3rd and 4th are crucial spots because it's where you need to press home an advantage if you're up, and become 'must score' penalties if you're behind.

I would go:

4th
3rd
1st
5th
2nd

As my order of preference for where I'd want my best taker.

 

[Pothas]

Yeah I read a whole book on penalties once and I think the 4th one was the most important. Think that people were more likely to miss when they were trying to avoid defeat rather than when they had one to win.

 

[GIMH]

Mathematically speaking, if you're out of by the 5th then it doesn't matter anyway that your best hasn't taken one as the others didn't score.

Obvious counter argument is that they might score in different circumstances if someone else has scored etc. I always remember we had Aldo go 5th against Villa in 94

 

[BoyBrumby]

Where to people stand on penalty taker order? Pundits seem to like to go on about how it's important to have your best pen taker go first, but I've always instintictively thought they should probably take second for some reason.

I've been lead to believe there's pretty solid mathematical logic behind a team's best penalty taker going first, but I don't think there's any scenario where a side takes less than three kicks, so I reckon second wouldn't make that much difference.

 

[Niall]

de gea penalty stat is destroying me. how is that even possible. jesus christ man

I'l try the thread out later, but their is a twitter thread which explores this, basically his penalty technique is absolutely awful.

**** me imagine having 6 subs and not making any for 100 minutes. Rashford couldn't move and Bailly was starting to hallucinate and Ole was like "carry on". Then they chose to kick second in the shoot out. Absolutely comical game management.

The defense has been online " he had nothing special to bring on" .....Villareal benefitted massively from subs during the game and nope it wasn't as if they were bringing on peak Pele ffs.

The players on the bench he has signed or given contract extensions to and cost plenty so some should have been tried. Amad has looked promising in the rare glimpses we have seen him and Van Der Beek and Mata actually played well the other day.

Every manager has their favs, but how he has used Rashford has been abysmal. The chap is knackered.

I don't know what he could have done with Bruno last night, he was the worst player on the pitch but the fallout would have been huge if they lost with him on the bench, nonetheless these are the big calls he gets paid to make and well he didn't.

 

[Niall]

Mathematically speaking, if you're out of by the 5th then it doesn't matter anyway that your best hasn't taken one as the others didn't score.

Obvious counter argument is that they might score in different circumstances if someone else has scored etc. I always remember we had Aldo go 5th against Villa in 94

Anyone remember the time when Ronaldo went last in Portugal shoot out and they were out the peno before?

 

[sledger]

I've been lead to believe there's pretty solid mathematical logic behind a team's best penalty taker going first, but I don't think there's any scenario where a side takes less than three kicks, so I reckon second wouldn't make that much difference.

I think my logic has always been that if for whatever reason you miss your first pen, you really need to make sure the second one goes in, otherwise you're really staring down the barrel, hence you'd need someone in that spot you can rely on to get it done.

That said, the best way to avoid that predicament at all is of course to not miss the first pen, which you'd probably have the best chance of doing if you had your best taker go first I guess.

 

[BoyBrumby]

We'd always take the first kick in the shoot out though, yeah?

Really struggle to see the logic in not going first if one has that option.

 

[sledger]

We'd always take the first kick in the shoot out though, yeah?

Really struggle to see the logic in not going first if one has that option.

It's a bit like a run chase in cricket I guess. I would always opt to take first, but some people like to know exactly what is required of them going into each kick/over or whatever I suppose.

 

[Uppercut]

The team kicking first wins something like 60%, so I don't think there'd ever be a good enough reason to override such a big on-paper advantage and choose to go second. It's a pretty embarrassing oversight from the United staff.

 

[Himannv]

The team kicking first wins something like 60%, so I don't think there'd ever be a good enough reason to override such a big on-paper advantage and choose to go second. It's a pretty embarrassing oversight from the United staff.

I don’t see is as a big disadvantage in hindsight because the penalty takers handled the pressure well enough - except perhaps the man who counts the most in such a scenario obviously.

 

[Furball]

It's a bit like a run chase in cricket I guess. I would always opt to take first, but some people like to know exactly what is required of them going into each kick/over or whatever I suppose.

This would only work as a comparison if team A took all 5 penalties and then team B steps up knowing exactly how many they need to score.

 

[sledger]

This would only work as a comparison if team A took all 5 penalties and then team B steps up knowing exactly how many they need to score.

No, the comparison works as it is. The extent to which it is useful is of course subjective.

 

[Niall]

The team kicking first wins something like 60%, so I don't think there'd ever be a good enough reason to override such a big on-paper advantage and choose to go second. It's a pretty embarrassing oversight from the United staff.

Do you have a link for that stat?

Not trolling as believe you are probably correct but a small argument with a work mate who doesn't think its anything like that

 

[Magrat Garlick]

Do you have a link for that stat?

Not trolling as believe you are probably correct but a small argument with a work mate who doesn't think its anything like that

It's in Kuper's and Szymanski's Soccernomics I believe. Excellent book

 

[BoyBrumby]

Yeah I read a whole book on penalties once and I think the 4th one was the most important. Think that people were more likely to miss when they were trying to avoid defeat rather than when they had one to win.

I'm intrigued by this.

I'd love to know how they decided.

I mean if the team going first scores their first four pens and the second team misses two of their first three the latter wouldn't even get a fourth, but arguably the former's fourth was the most important because it won them the game.

Wonder if the crucial pen is dependent on whether a side goes first or second?