Can Ashwin beat Murali's 800?

[Burgey]

Needs only play in India to beat Murali's 350.
Needs to only play in India to beat Murali's 400.
Needs to only play in India to beat Murali's 450.
Needs to only play in India to beat Murali's 500.

All likely to happen considering his current rate if matches being played at home.

Never thought those Murali records would be broken so soon.

ftfy

 

[Jono]

He has a long way to go to get to 400 even. He plays all 3 forms and bowls a lot, plus bats. Can get hurt easily. We can't count chicken s.

 

[mr_mister]

if he retires before he makes 400 wickets i'll close my account

 

[Jono]

Its not he retires, he gets injured and becomes less effective (shoulder injury etc.)

hopefully doesn't happen.

 

[harsh.ag]

He has a long way to go to get to 400 even. He plays all 3 forms and bowls a lot, plus bats. Can get hurt easily. We can't count chicken s.

He doesn't though. Probably will only play in the Champions Trophy.

 

[Jono]

true he was rested for NZ odis yeah?

 

[honestbharani]

There is talk that Ash, Kohli, Jaddu, Shami all will be rested for the ODIs and T20s against England. Think a lot of this is just some serious over reaction to a man who is bowling very very well but in all honesty, think 400-500 wickets would be his ceiling unless he does something dramatic away from home. He is awesome value as an overall player though. To me, he is a bowling version of Sehwag if could also have kept bowling and taking 2 wickets every game. His improved batting gives him a better chance to get a place in the XI away from home and then we will see if he is finally able to bowl and get wickets on those tracks. Not gonna run through line ups but 3/80 in 30 overs stuff can help this side so so much and adding in a 50 or two every 3 games from #7.

 

[Shri]

He will likely end with 550-650 wickets if he's really lucky and doesn't get injured or goes through a dip in form.

He's 30 now. Probably has 4 away/home cycles left in him. Roughly 200 wickets in the home seasons and 70 away wickets conservatively. That should get him into the 500s and then the rest are bonus wickets if he manages to extend his career somehow.

 

[viriya]

There is talk that Ash, Kohli, Jaddu, Shami all will be rested for the ODIs and T20s against England. Think a lot of this is just some serious over reaction to a man who is bowling very very well but in all honesty, think 400-500 wickets would be his ceiling unless he does something dramatic away from home. He is awesome value as an overall player though. To me, he is a bowling version of Sehwag if could also have kept bowling and taking 2 wickets every game. His improved batting gives him a better chance to get a place in the XI away from home and then we will see if he is finally able to bowl and get wickets on those tracks. Not gonna run through line ups but 3/80 in 30 overs stuff can help this side so so much and adding in a 50 or two every 3 games from #7.

Sehwag at home is not a good comparison because he only averaged 54 at home. Ashwin's batting equivalent at home would be averaging 70+ considering his home record (average + wpm) is in the Murali realm.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Sehwag at home is not a good comparison because he only averaged 54 at home. Ashwin's batting equivalent at home would be averaging 70+ considering his home record (average + wpm) is in the Murali realm.

Sehwag's SR of 84 at home would be like 30 for Ashwin to match.

 

[viriya]

Sehwag's SR of 84 at home would be like 30 for Ashwin to match.

Not really.. it would be closer to 45 or so if you go by the same standard deviations. And Ashwin SR at home is 50 which is close. He averages 20 with a wpm of ~7 which is way better than 54 batting so the SR doesn't solely explain the difference.

 

[smash84]

Not really.. it would be closer to 45 or so if you go by the same standard deviations. And Ashwin SR at home is 50 which is close. He averages 20 with a wpm of ~7 which is way better than 54 batting so the SR doesn't solely explain the difference.

really? what's the mean and standard deviation for SRs at home for bowlers and batsmen? A SR of 50+ for the bowler doesn't sound truly extraordinary. While a batting SR of 84 definitely does.

 

[viriya]

really? what's the mean and standard deviation for SRs at home for bowlers and batsmen? A SR of 50+ for the bowler doesn't sound truly extraordinary. While a batting SR of 84 definitely does.

The problem is that Test batting SR is not nearly as important as bowling SR. And batting average and bowling average are not great comparisons since wpm should be involved as well. All this means that 84 SR while being on the high end for Test batting has much less of an impact compared to someone with a 40-50 bowling SR.

Either way,
there are 3 batsmen with ~82 batting SR (Sehwag, Warner, Gilchrist) at home with a 2000 run qualification.
there are 4 bowlers with <45 bowling SR (Waqar, Steyn, Marshall, Ashwin) at home with a 100 wicket qualification.

So Ashwin's 45 SR is pretty equivalent to Sehwag's 83 SR. Maybe just a tad higher, but his 20 average with 7 wpm destroys Sehwag's 54 average.

 

[listento_me]

No one out of the current crop is getting 500, let alone 800 lol

 

[viriya]

Going a bit further, using a WPM/Average as the measure equivalent to batting average, Ashwin comes at #2 at home after Murali.

Ignoring Bradman at home (98 average), the next two highest are Walcott and Weekes at a ~70 average.

Looking at how much more dominant Murali and Ashwin have been at home compared to the others (Ashwin is 20% better than #3 Imran), I would put the "Ashwin-equivalent batting average" in the 75-80 range (ignoring SR).

Basically, Murali and Ashwin are the Bradmans of bowling at home, and no one else comes close.

 

[smash84]

you're pulling out a lot of fancy stats for sure but there are more batsmen than there are bowlers and even then there's less batsmen with Sehwag kind of SR than there are with Ashwin kind of SR

 

[Furball]

true he was rested for NZ odis yeah?

Is he not (comparitively speaking) rubbish in ODIs?

 

[srbhkshk]

Isn't as good as in tests, but is a very solid 40/2 when not playing on roads.

 

[vic_orthdox]

He has a long way to go to get to 400 even. He plays all 3 forms and bowls a lot, plus bats. Can get hurt easily. We can't count chicken s.

And the burden of doing all the press conferences.

 

[viriya]

Ashwin fastest to 25 5 wicket hauls in just 47 Tests - destroying Hadlee's 62 match record (Murali did it in 63).