The Rugby World Cup 2015 Final

[Hurricane]

Australia vs New Zealand.

Discuss...

 

[hendrix]

Too tight to call.

 

[Hurricane]

Too tight to call.

I have this as 50/50 as well

For me it is McCaw vs Pocock. Whoever wins, wins.

As I have also mentioned a number of times in these threads over the years, part of the game in being manipulative with the referee before the game starts.

"Will you be policing incidents such as <insert something that David Pocock does>"

For reasons unknown to me rugby sees fit to grant the head coaches a 15 minute audience with the referee before the start of the match.

Good luck to both teams. Should be epic.

 

[dermo]

backing australia on 2015 world cup form

 

[Bahnz]

Nah, New Zealand better and more experienced across the park. Australia could win, but I'd have it 70-30 in NZ's favour.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

I am such an anxious viewer of sports when a team I want to win is involved. I much prefer watching high quality games where I am apathetic about who wins. The last RWC final, I probably spent more time faffing about in the kitchen pretending to be busy rather than watching the game. It is incredibly tempting to sleep through the final and watch the replay and avoid the increased blood pressure which will result from an inevitably tight game. Might place a bet or two on a low margin result. Rarely are these matches anything other than incredibly pressured and cagey affairs - I'm sure our domestic TAB will be backing black with a higher margin than I would expect - should be value in the low margins I'd think.

 

[Hurricane]

I got an inferred telling off for Ghambiring on the silver fern web site for saying that Australia has a 50% chance of winning. The hard core fans on that site are saying NZ will walk this.
I just don't see it. I honestly thought we would walk the semi final by 15 points. Instead we nearly lost. Australia are a fine team. I stand by my call that it is anyone's match. Part of that prediction is that they beat us earlier this year when at full strength.

 

[social]

I have this as 50/50 as well

For me it is McCaw vs Pocock. Whoever wins, wins.

As I have also mentioned a number of times in these threads over the years, part of the game in being manipulative with the referee before the game starts.

"Will you be policing incidents such as <insert something that David Pocock does>"

For reasons unknown to me rugby sees fit to grant the head coaches a 15 minute audience with the referee before the start of the match.

Good luck to both teams. Should be epic.

Too simplistic IMO as Pocock 2015 beats McCaw 2015 one-on-one 9/10 so give up if that is the game-plan

Furthermore, when ABs dominated him in 2011, it was 3 vs 1 - now he has Hooper and Fardy to lend a hand at the breakdown

ABs need to break square (or at least not get dominated) at breakdown, hammer Oz in the lineout (Pocock at 8 is not an option for us in that area and his only real weakness) and wear us down with greater quality/depth

ABs should win but its a one-off match and I don't thing we really fear you guys any more

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Just hope the game is like the first semi and we have a cracker.

 

[social]

I got an inferred telling off for Ghambiring on the silver fern web site for saying that Australia has a 50% chance of winning. The hard core fans on that site are saying NZ will walk this.
I just don't see it. I honestly thought we would walk the semi final by 15 points. Instead we nearly lost. Australia are a fine team. I stand by my call that it is anyone's match. Part of that prediction is that they beat us earlier this year when at full strength.

Lots of trolls and/or deluded numpties on rugby forums

ABs have the ability to put 50+ on anyone but some would have you believe that it is a given

ABs will and should be favourites but it is a close call

IMO, Oz are running out of steam but adrenaline is a funny thing

 

[hendrix]

Hurricane you might find this interesting:

In the past couple of seasons for the ABs, the runners in the forwards line up next to the ruck and do lots of short passes to each other. It's a nice show of skill that makes it easier to break the advantage line, as it opens short little channels in the defence. Particularly when playing a very big and strong defensive side like South Africa, those little half-holes in the defense can be the difference between forward momentum and going backwards.

However, in the test against the Wallabies in Sydney that we lost, this tactic backfired as the sacrifice is that your forwards are slower to clean out the ruck as they're all effective runners rather than being behind a runner to clean out. Pocock had a field day when forwards weren't there to clean him out immediately. The next Test at Eden Park the tactic completely disappeared.

As Argentina showed, it shouldn't be that difficult to break the advantage line against this Australian team - they're very good defensively, yes, but they're simply not as big as the Saffers so if you run a Nonu or a Kaino or a Savea into most of their players they'll take a couple of metres past the ruck. Those short little passes aren't necessary, and in fact it's better to just concentrate on securing the ball.

 

[Hurricane]

Too simplistic IMO as Pocock 2015 beats McCaw 2015 one-on-one 9/10 so give up if that is the game-plan

Furthermore, when ABs dominated him in 2011, it was 3 vs 1 - now he has Hooper and Fardy to lend a hand at the breakdown

ABs need to break square (or at least not get dominated) at breakdown, hammer Oz in the lineout (Pocock at 8 is not an option for us in that area and his only real weakness) and wear us down with greater quality/depth

ABs should win but its a one-off match and I don't thing we really fear you guys any more

The plan is to rival Australia at the breakdown at least that is my plan for victory. Ritchie 2015 isn't capable of matching pocock or wait maybe he is for a one off match if he digs deep enough. This is his last match ever. Don't write off the GOAT

The breakdown is too important an area for us to concede it and try to win the match elsewhere. There are simply so many breakdowns.

 

[Bahnz]

Just hope the game is like the first semi and we have a cracker.

Lolwat? While close on the scoreboard, the first semi was a turgid bore. I'd much rather watch a repeat of the second semi even if it means it's a bit one-sided.

 

[Tangles]

Aussies didn't finish off Wales or Scotland or Argentina. NZ will also have belief those sides maybe didn't. NZ win without something epic from the Wallabies.

 

[social]

The plan is to rival Australia at the breakdown at least that is my plan for victory. Ritchie 2015 isn't capable of matching pocock or wait maybe he is for a one off match if he digs deep enough. This is his last match ever. Don't write off the GOAT

The breakdown is too important an area for us to concede it and try to win the match elsewhere. There are simply so many breakdowns.

Agree with that 100%

In 2011, ABs countered him by making him do a lot of first up tackling thereby restricting his ability to pilfer/slow play down at the ensuing breakdown

However, emergence of Fardy and, to a lesser extent, Hooper (not great on the ground but excellent in defence) has made this strategy more difficult to execute

Anyway, despite all the hype around Pocock, the interesting thing is that the ABs as a team create far more turnovers than anybody else and a couple of Pocock steals will pale into insignificance if the Wallabies struggle in the lineouts, at the scrum, etc

 

[Hurricane]

Hurricane you might find this interesting:

In the past couple of seasons for the ABs, the runners in the forwards line up next to the ruck and do lots of short passes to each other. It's a nice show of skill that makes it easier to break the advantage line, as it opens short little channels in the defence. Particularly when playing a very big and strong defensive side like South Africa, those little half-holes in the defense can be the difference between forward momentum and going backwards.

However, in the test against the Wallabies in Sydney that we lost, this tactic backfired as the sacrifice is that your forwards are slower to clean out the ruck as they're all effective runners rather than being behind a runner to clean out. Pocock had a field day when forwards weren't there to clean him out immediately. The next Test at Eden Park the tactic completely disappeared.

As Argentina showed, it shouldn't be that difficult to break the advantage line against this Australian team - they're very good defensively, yes, but they're simply not as big as the Saffers so if you run a Nonu or a Kaino or a Savea into most of their players they'll take a couple of metres past the ruck. Those short little passes aren't necessary, and in fact it's better to just concentrate on securing the ball.

Love this. Post of the day.

 

[Hurricane]

Anyway, despite all the hype around Pocock, the interesting thing is that the ABs as a team create far more turnovers than anybody else and a couple of Pocock steals will pale into insignificance if the Wallabies struggle in the lineouts, at the scrum, etc

How many is he getting per game though. If you can get one you have done well. He must be getting 4 or 5 per game.

 

[ripper868]

Australia by 20

 

[Hurricane]

Let's get some hype going boyz. Where is the cross tasman banter? Where is the jokes about sheep shaggers? I want my money's worth out of the next 5 days.

In NEWZ -

While all the talk surrounded Folau's injury-hampered performance against Argentina, Wallabies coach Michael Cheika was making positive noises about his fitness, insisting the fullback's 60-minute performance against Argentina was all part of the plan.
Cheika was also bullish about David Pocock's chances of starting against the All Blacks, after one third of Australia's celebrated back row combination - nicknamed 'The Foocock' after members Pocock, Michael Hooper and Scott Fardy - made it through 80 minutes on Sunday.
Matt Giteau, an early concern after coming off with a groin injury, appears to be fine, with Cheika confirming the veteran centre had pulled up okay on Monday morning.
And front rower Scott Sio, sorely missed at set piece, also looks likely to make a return in time to play in the final.
"We had to see if he got the movement back in his elbow, he just had a lot of blood in there," Cheika said.
"There's no ligament damage or anything. He needs it for binding and scrummaging, so it's subsiding pretty quickly now so we're feeling pretty good about his chances of playing."

The only thing I have learned from tipping contests about rugby matches is to read the injury reports. Who actually plays the game makes a massive difference. Australia sound like they will be at full strength.

 

[social]

How many is he getting per game though. If you can get one you have done well. He must be getting 4 or 5 per game.

Don't know the exact figure but I know the he is averaging 2 turnovers per match in his own team's 22 - pretty handy

BTW, ABs are winning nearly 25% of opposition lineout throws this tourney and I can see that being a real problem for us