Ajmal vs Herath

[harsh.ag]

July 5, 2014 Lord's ~ Ajmal forever

 

[smash84]

July 5, 2014 Lord's ~ Ajmal forever

quite ruined the match that one. Sachin to be blamed for it

 

[simonlee48]

In the last 4-5 years, Herath and Ajmal have been equally impressive in longer format. Not much to chose between then in this period. In, shorter formats, Ajmal is far ahead. Overall, it's clearly, Ajmal.

 

[smash84]

Well I wanted to say legal but I didn't want another infraction

They are both accurate bowlers, Herath flights it more whereas on turning pitches Ajmal gets more turn. Look the Indian side that Herath faced when Sri Lanka were last in India had Sehwag in full cry (Muralitharan -albeit on his last legs- was getting tonked for sixes), Gambhir, Tendulkar, Laxman all in fair form. He has had some success in ODIs sure, but that hardly means he'd do the same in tests. Funny you bring up Saqlain because I seem to him remember playing his last test vs India and we all know what happened there We could argue all day till the cows come home about how he'd go vs India or how he'd have gone against that side. The point is India were the best players of spin then for certain (now there's only reputation, the current Indian players are a level below at playing spin) and obviously your record is going to look better if you have not played them at all as opposed to a bloke who has played them a few times.

Exactly, so there is no reason to believe that Ajmal would get tonked by the Indian batsmen that you initially asserted.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Only people voting for Herath will be those that think Ajmal chucks tbh

 

[viriya]

I think they are quite even in Tests tbh.. Herath has single-handedly kept SL competitive since Murali retired - SL would be losing matches to everyone bar WI/Zim/Ban if it weren't for him most likely..

Although Ajmal has a better record it doesn't show how he has never played India and barely played Australia.. He also hasn't played that many tests. I realize that these are not his faults, but it's not a stretch to believe that his record wouldn't be as good if he had played those teams more.

Also disagree that Herath doesn't "take" wickets and that batsmen just don't give him the respect he deserves and so "loses" them. If you had watched SL test matches for the past 3-4 years you wouldn't really be saying that. It's true that Herath doesn't have Ajmal's variations, but I don't remember the last left-arm spinner that was as good as Herath.. Better than Vettori imo, probably Derek Underwood and Bishen Bedi are the only ones better than Herath in history?
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/en...orderby=wickets;template=results;type=bowling

In ODIs there is no comparison - but I'm guessing the discussion here is Test-focused.

 

[Jassy]

Exactly, so there is no reason to believe that Ajmal would get tonked by the Indian batsmen that you initially asserted.

Mate, not sure what you understood from my post. Look it is simple:

Ajmal averages more than 30 plus vs SL, SA, NZ, Aus
Less than 30 vs England, Zimbabwe, West Indies, Bangladesh.

I'll leave it to you to place a batting line up of Sehwg, Gambhir, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman, Dhoni in one of those two categories. It really is simple - if you play the best players of spin your average is most likely to suffer if you are a spinner. When one bloke has played them a few times and another hasn't played them at all, then it is unfair to include those in the stats of the former in a direct comparison. And while I can't definitely prove(how could I?!) that he would have been smashed, logic and Ajmal's numbers suggest he would have been smashed or at least not been too effective.

 

[Jassy]

Herath makes batsmen give their wickets away; Ajmal takes them.

Could you elaborate?

 

[Maximas]

Ajmal for me by a large margin. Herath can, and has been, sat on by the batsmen looking to shut up shop. Ajmal cannot. Ajmal can also keep an end tight just as well as Herath. Herath's best spells came when batsmen didn't think too highly of him - when he has been treated with the respect he deserves his figures haven't been so good. Ajmal is constantly viewed as a threat, constantly played as such, and yet constantly gets batsmen out.

Having watched Ajmal wheel away for 49 overs in the first test of the last series and take no wickets (2nd dig), I think it's fair to say he can be 'sat on', but when conditions are in his favour it probably is more difficult to do so against him.

Ajmal has had the disadvantage of Pakistan's keeping and fielding though. Sri Lanka are a much better fielding side for a spinner.

I was there on the second day of the boxing day test watching at least 4 chances go down off Herath in that innings alone, while Prasanna Jayawardene and Mahela at slip have served him well I don't think the rest of the team really pulls their weight in the field when anyone bowls.

Your idea that Herath is only now being thought of as a threat is ridiculous btw, has played several series' now where he was the only world class bowler in the SL line-up and has been treated as such whenever he has played. The Australia tour is the best example, he had to come on and bowl at set batsmen after the pace bowlers usually failed to either contain or take wickets, yet he still had success despite coming with a big reputation.

 

[cnerd123]

Could you elaborate?

Herath deceives batsmen looking to attack him. He works batsmen over during his spell, bowls to a plan, a field, sets them up, and draws the false shot.

Ajmal bowls more unplayable deliveries, and is jusy harder to face in general - he bowls quicker, gets more turn, more bounce, bowls very few bad balls and his doosra is excellent. He's a smart bowler but doesn't rely as much on out-thinking batsmen as Herath does - thats probably why he's a better ODI bowler too. He's a more awkward bowler to face.

I'll dig up stats later of Herath when he just started leading the attack vs his last few series. I suspect his strike rate will go up and economy down.

 

[hendrix]

Herath makes batsmen give their wickets away; Ajmal takes them.

You're really overstating this.

You could argue that Ajmal maybe bowls a few more unplayable deliveries but Herath is not just a patience bowler. He can genuinely turn it when he wants to, has a ripping arm ball and the occasional carrom ball.

 

[cnerd123]

You're really overstating this.

You could argue that Ajmal maybe bowls a few more unplayable deliveries but Herath is just a patience bowler. He can genuinely turn it when he wants to, has a ripping arm ball and the occasional carrom ball.

Its not about the skills he possess but about how he uses them. He is a patience bowler, like you said.

Put it this way - which of the two would a batsman fear facing more when he's fresh to the crease, irrespective of conditions? Which bowler would you trust more if you had to rip out 5 wickets in 10 overs? Who would you rather have in your side after a poor first innings with the bat/defending a small target in the 4th innings?

 

[simonlee48]

Many of you saying that Ajmal has better stats in the last 4-5 years I am not sure I agree with it at all.

Stats of Ajmal: Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPN Cricinfo

Stats of Herath after Ajmal debuted: Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPN Cricinfo

Ajmal has 9 5-fers and Herath has 18. Both average roughly the same with similar strike rate. As I said earlier, in the last 4-5 years, there is very little to chose and if I have to go by stats then I will rather pick Herath here due to having double 5-fers.

Which bowler would you trust more if you had to rip out 5 wickets in 10 overs?

In the last 5 years, Herath has 18 5-fers and Ajmal has 9. I will leave you to decide who you will pick for taking 5 wickets

---------------------

Herath has become very good and he doesn't simply plays the waiting game. His strike rate has been the same as Ajmal in the last 5 years( When Ajmal played). Over all , Ajmal has been a better bowler but that's due to being better in ODI.

 

[smash84]

So you used ODIs as the tie breaker to vote for Ajmal?

 

[simonlee48]

So you used ODIs as the tie breaker to vote for Ajmal?

Let me vote for Ajmal. I was only commenting so far. I was saying that there isn't much difference between these two in longer format in the last 4-5 years but in shorter one Ajmal is far ahead. Also, If you ask me to vote for who is a better bowler, only in tests, even then I will say Ajmal because I am going to see their entire career and not only the last 4-5 years. My comment about both being at the same level in test is still true when you see the last 4-5 years.

I was mainly commenting about last 4-5 years because I saw a poster talking as if Herath can't be relied to pick up 5 wickets when he has done it 18 times in the last 5 years. Also, folks were talking about stats in recent years and saying that Ajmal had a better one. I didn't see it that way so presented my angle.

Added Later: It seems I had already voted for Ajmal and forgot about it.

 

[Maximas]

I'll dig up stats later of Herath when he just started leading the attack vs his last few series. I suspect his strike rate will go up and economy down.

Has been leading the attack for 3 years now

 

[hendrix]

Its not about the skills he possess but about how he uses them. He is a patience bowler, like you said.

I meant to say that he's NOT just a patience bowler.

Against good batsmen any bowler has to be patient, btw.

 

[smash84]

Let me vote for Ajmal. I was only commenting so far. I was saying that there isn't much difference between these two in longer format in the last 4-5 years but in shorter one Ajmal is far ahead. Also, If you ask me to vote for who is a better bowler, only in tests, even then I will say Ajmal because I am going to see their entire career and not only the last 4-5 years. My comment about both being at the same level in test is still true when you see the last 4-5 years.

I was mainly commenting about last 4-5 years because I saw a poster talking as if Herath can't be relied to pick up 5 wickets when he has done it 18 times in the last 5 years. Also, folks were talking about stats in recent years and saying that Ajmal had a better one. I didn't see it that way so presented my angle.

Added Later: It seems I had already voted for Ajmal and forgot about it.

Fair enough

 

[ohnoitsyou]

Regretting going Ajmal seeing how far behind Herath is.

 

[cnerd123]

Well I waded into this debate on the bus ride to work today morning, time now to dig up some stats and see if my intuition is right.

A disclaimer up front that I have done no stats check before my earlier comments, just was going off what I saw and what I felt, and I haven't watched them bowl in every test over the last few years, but have seen them both equally.

My gut feeling is that Ajmal looks a more dangerous bowler, can bowl as well as Herath can if he needs to hold up an end and dry runs, yet has that ability to run through sides that I feel Herath lacks, and as such it swung my vote to him. I feel that Herath, much like Vettori as someone compared him to earlier, can be sat on. That view may be heavily biased by the last few tests. It also may be because he looks so innocuous when he bowls. Anyways lets dig into the stats and see.

First I need to address this:

In the last 5 years, Herath has 18 5-fers and Ajmal has 9. I will leave you to decide who you will pick for taking 5 wickets

I expect you Simon to be clever enough to realise that having more five-fers isn't an objective measure of a bowlers wicket-taking prowess, but a subjective one that compares him to his teammates. Shakib takes a lot of five-fers, possibly more than a guy like Ajmal (I haven't checked), but that's more to do with him being the only bowler in the BD lineup capable of taking wickets than to do with him being a better wicket-taking bowler.

I went and dug up thier Averages, Econ and SR for their 5 wicket hauls starting form 2009 (Ajmal's debut):

Ajmal:
Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPN Cricinfo

Herath:
Bowling records | Test matches | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPN Cricinfo

First thing to point out - Ajmal has 9 five wicket hauls in 63 innings bowled. Herath has 18 in 75 innings bowled. Herath indeed has a much better rate in that regard. Ajmal has 1 5WI against a non-Top 8 though, while Herath has 2 5WI. So all in all you would like to give Herath the edge in this.

Initially I felt that Herath probably bowls a larger share of the overs and thus gets more opportunity to strike that Ajmal does. Then I noticed that Ajmal bowls, on average, 170 balls per innings and 210 balls when he gets a five-fer. Herath has 173 balls per innings and 215 balls per five wicket haul (during that period). Almost identical. So Ajmal isn't lacking in opportunity.

Another theory is that from 2009-2010 Herath had a few games alongside Murali. He has picked up 4 of his five-fers with Murali by his side. Maybe the pressure built by Murali was helping him. What are his stats since Murali retired?

Without Murali, Herath has 14 fiver fers in 61 innings bowled (still superior) and bowls a similar number of balls (172 per innings and 207 per five-fer). So clearly he's been doing a pretty fine job with or without Murali.

I then though that maybe Ajmal gets his five-wicket hauls quicker and cheaper than Herath does. Herath's five-fers might mainly come through long marathon spells on flat tracks when the other bowles have broken down or proven ineffective. This has already been disputed by seeing they both bowl similar number of balls for their five-fers, but I checked the stats anyways.

And indeed, Ajmal has a better strike rate, and average in his 5 wicket hauls, albeit by small margins. He even has a fractionally better economy rate. What does that mean? Not much given how minuscule the differences are. Ajmal's quickest five-fer took 24.3 overs (his 7-fer against England in Dubai), while Herath has 4 performances quicker than that (Australia 3 times in that list; which lends credence to the idea that Herath likes it when batsmen attack him).

I was expecting there to be a more significant advantage to Ajmal in average and strike rate than 2.34 runs and 2.7 balls respectively, but there you go.

So Herath does take five-wicket hauls a lot more frequently than Ajmal, but he isn't getting them at a better strike rate or average. Neither is he carrying his attack more than Ajmal, as they both basically bowl the same number of balls per innings normally and for their five-fers. So how is he doing it then? I feel I need to dig into the Pak team and SL team bowling stats during this period to fully understand each bowler's role in their team, and thus understand this.


But now back to my earlier hypothesis - Herath's diminishing effectiveness vs. Ajmal's continued brilliance. Lets see the career series-by-series stats for each of them. I have taken Ajmal's whole career (since he pretty much debuted as lead spinner) and Herath without Murali around (so 22nd July 2010).

However it must be noted Herath did play some Tests without Murali in 2009 - such as Ajmal's debut test, in which he took 4/15 in the second innings to defend 168. Ajmal was the not out man. Very poetic. I might dig up stats for Herath without Murali overall and not just 2009/2010 onwards and see what they look like, but for the sake of this debate lets say Herath's career as lead spinner started when Murali officially hung up his boots.

I expect them both to have started with a bang, with Herath's effectiveness slowly fading while Ajmal stays strong. Lets see if I'm right:

Herath: http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/en...pan;template=results;type=bowling;view=series
Ajmal: http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/en...s=1;template=results;type=bowling;view=series

Herath averaged under 30 in 6 of his first 8 series. He performed poorly in England in his second series as lead spinner - forgiveable - and against Pakistan in Dubai (a series where Ajmal averaged 28.77).
However in his last 7 series, he has averaged under 30 only twice, and once was against BD.
His best performances also have all come in Sri Lanka; he has averaged under 30 only once in 6 series outside (although to be fair 33.91 in Australia isn't terrible).
A more telling stats is in his last five series, his strike rate has been 73.7 - 40(bangladesh) - 95.6 - 86 - 78

As for Ajmal? Well he has been fairly inconsistent, it's hard to read a pattern. In his first 5 series, he had decent ones in Sri Lanka and England, but was bullied in New Zealand and Australia, and in UAE by South Africa. He then proceeded to demolish West Indies before being meh in Zimbabwe. He then strung together 4 series with an average under 30 but that included Bangladesh, before he went to South Africa and averaged 33 and tore apart Zimbabwe in two tests. Ripped South Africa apart back in the UAE, and just when you felt he was putting together a really impressive run, Sri Lanka visited UAE and he averaged 42 with a SR of 117 (Herath averaged 36.6 and a SR of 73 in comparison).

So my gut feeling that Herath started really well but faded seems to be true, while Ajmal didn't start with a bang but did string together about 9 series of pretty solid efforts in a row once he found his feet. However Ajmal hasn't wrecked a side in a series as often as Herath has.

Little bit more analysis shows the sides Herath has 'wrecked' (lets take that to mean an SR of 50 or less) have been West Indies, Australia, England, New Zealand, and Bangladesh. 4 of those sides aren't known to grind out runs and England are just terrible with spin. Also it must be noted that all 5 of these series have been in Sri Lanka. Herath also has a SR of 56 against Bangladesh in the other series he played against them, which was also in Sri Lanka.

Ajmal on the other hand has wrecked...West Indies, England and Zimbabwe, with an SR of 59 against the Saffars. His second and third series were New Zealand and Australia and he has yet to play them again. He has bowled to South Africa and Sri Lanka a lot and those sides are tough for a spinner to bowl to, which may explain why his stats don't match up to (my) expectations.

So what does this tell us? Nothing really. An hour of my life wasted on statsguru to prove that Herath may be in a decline and that Ajmal isn't as effective a wicket taking force as I felt he was, and that Herath was beastly on home pitches. Sigh.