*Official* Third Test at the WACA

[benchmark00]

A lot of times betting agencies do this for free advertising. The money they may potentially lose by England coming back and drawing/winning the series and having to pay both out is off set by the value of everyone talking about it at no explicit charge (given they view Australia are likely to win anyway) to the firm.

 

[wiff]

That's why they are paying out early on Australia winning the Ashes back in the hope people collecting will re-invest in other bets.

Exactly, they don't care about the result so much, they just want to keep the customer in that happy go lucky frame of mind.

 

[Jono]

Its generally only Sportsbet who do this. Its their marketing campaign, so people use them thinking they may get paid out early. Plus obviously the free advertising but this gets discusses less and less as Sportsbet do it more and more.

I'm pretty sure it was Sportsbet (though it may have been TAB) who paid out Judd early in the 2011 Brownlow, only for him not to win it.

 

[Hooksey]

Exactly, they don't care about the result so much, they just want to keep the customer in that happy go lucky frame of mind.

They care about the result all right. That's what they take bets on, and they wouldn't be giving money away unless they were pretty darn convinced the result will have Australia winning back the Ashes.

Don't forget bets made by punters who backed England to retain the Ashes are still alive - well as alive as they can be when England are 0-2 with only 3 to play anyway.

 

[NUFAN]

I ****ing hate how they've done this TBH (as I didn't bet on it). It just seems like the sort of thing which could backfire easily. I know Sportsbet paid on the Melbourne Storm winning the minor Premiership a few years back, only for them to go on a losing streak post-Origin.

Anyway, all this betting talk has made me want to chuck on a bet *logs into Sportsbet*.

 

[wiff]

They care about the result all right. That's what they take bets on

Ideally the betting company would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. Say with odds of 11-10, if one bets on England and another one bets on Australia they would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit so they really don’t care who wins as long as they have an equal amount bet on each team.

and they wouldn't be giving money away unless they were pretty darn convinced the result will have Australia winning back the Ashes.

Sports bet worker: "Lets pay out the Aussie bets on the ashes".
Sports Boss: "Why?"
Sports bet worker: "I'm convinced Australia will win".
Sports Boss: "We usually don't pay out until the result is final"
Sports bet worker: "I'm pretty darn convinced".
Sports Boss: "OK then, pay them out!"

 

[wiff]

Ideally the betting company would like to have the same amount of money wagered on the two teams playing. Say with odds of 11-10, if one bets on England and another one bets on Australia they would pay the winner $100 but collect $110 for the loser. This gives them a $10 profit so they really don’t care who wins as long as they have an equal amount bet on each team.

And can I just say (I promise this will be my last post on betting!) that sometimes the odds look funny, that is not an indication of what they think the result will be, but rather their way of making sure there is equal amount of money bet on both sides.

 

[NUFAN]

And can I just say (I promise this will be my last post on betting!) that sometimes the odds look funny, that is not an indication of what they think the result will be, but rather their way of making sure there is equal amount of money bet on both sides.

You're getting this slightly wrong. They don't care about equal money being bet on both sides, this doesn't make sense as if team A is $1.39 and team B $3.14, if $100 is spent on both teams, they have $200 total and their book will be Team A +61, Team B -114.

Betting agents obviously can balance their book by changing the odds or betting with a rival betting company. Its a win-win situation for them very often, which allows them to have so many people working for them.. Everyone, including me, think that we'll be able to beat the system..

 

[wiff]

You're getting this slightly wrong. They don't care about equal money being bet on both sides, this doesn't make sense as if team A is $1.39 and team B $3.14, if $100 is spent on both teams, they have $200 total and their book will be Team A +61, Team B -114.

Betting agents obviously can balance their book by changing the odds or betting with a rival betting company. Its a win-win situation for them very often, which allows them to have so many people working for them.. Everyone, including me, think that we'll be able to beat the system..

Yeah OK, they work out their odds to balance their books.

Opps No more betting I said, so anyone hear about Rhino's knee?

 

[benchmark00]

Connected to the thigh bone iirc.

 

[centurymaker]

Predictions:

Century makers:
Bailey, Root, Watson, Cook


Michelle Pfeiffers
Harris

Unpredictable moment involving
Smith

Neither of those 4 batsmen will get a 100 IMO.

 

[Top_Cat]

No tons this game. None of the bats on either side play the bouncing ball well enough to ton up on a WACA flyer, I reckon.

 

[Hooksey]

No tons this game. None of the bats on either side play the bouncing ball well enough to ton up on a WACA flyer, I reckon.

Clarke and Cook were good enough in 2006. It would be a big turnaround for Cook to score one here, but I wouldn't write off Clarke.

 

[Top_Cat]

.....on one of the flattest WACA pitches seen in years. This one is shaping up to be much quicker.

 

[Maximas]

Do we think this is gonna be another classic WACA game where the first innings is a sub 250 rout for both sides and then a big score in the second dig?

 

[Spikey]

rad haddin will do it

 

[Spikey]

ABC Grandstand ‏@abcgrandstand 3m
Australian all-rounder James Faulkner leaves Perth nets for treatment after being struck on the hand #Ashes

 

[Daemon]

ABC Grandstand ‏@abcgrandstand 3m
Australian all-rounder James Faulkner leaves Perth nets for treatment after being struck on the hand #Ashes

 

[wiff]

No tons this game. None of the bats on either side play the bouncing ball well enough to ton up on a WACA flyer, I reckon.

Once you get in, it plays true. Watson will find it hard to get lbw on this track, so I'm having a sneaky bet on him. He can disappoint though.
Cook: second innings metric tonne (105) he will find the tired bowlers more to his liking. I'm banking on him winning the toss, but so far he's not been good on the toss.
Root: Quality batsman, can tough it out
Bailey: coming in at lower order will have a gleam in his eye. Will slog it out, needs a bit of luck, he does.

Other prediction: Johnson to break someone's hand, other than one of his team mates in the nets.

 

[Prince EWS]

Faulkner's injury is on Clarke if he didn't give him fair warning to be ready for a broken ****ing hand.